The rise of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket has forced former President Donald Trump to direct significantly more resources to the lone state his campaign will defend this year: North Carolina.
Since early August, the Trump campaign and his joint fundraising committees have spent at least $7.4 million on ads in the Tar Heel State, according to AdImpact tracking. That’s about $3 million more than Harris and his joint fundraising committees have spent over the same period. That’s the most money the Trump team has spent on ads in any swing state since the beginning of the month, narrowly missing Pennsylvania.
According to AdImpact tracking, pro-Trump spending in the state topped $11.2 million during that period, while Harris spending was about $7.6 million.
Of course, with two major media markets surrounding Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina is not a cheap state to advertise in. And other Trump-supporting outside groups have spent more in other battleground states, making it less necessary for Trump’s team to devote resources. there.
But since North Carolina is the only major swing state where both parties are actively contesting the cycle Trump won in 2016 and 2020, the Harris team sees the flood of spending and attention here as evidence that their GOP rivals are increasingly nervous about holding on to the state’s 16 electoral votes in the column.
“They have a right to be concerned,” Dan Kanninen, director of Harris’ battleground states, told NBC News, noting that Trump’s 1.3 percentage point win in North Carolina in 2020 was the narrowest of any state he carried. “I think they know it’s a state that could turn blue this time, and they have to feel like they have to win it to get back to the White House. We also feel that North Carolina is a must-have and incredibly important state for us.
“It may very well be a decisive state,” he added. “There are six or seven seats that are just really, really tight. And so, to me, North Carolina is as important as any of them. — The Trump campaign clearly sees that, too, and that’s probably why they’re concerned.
But Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said the campaign’s increased investment in North Carolina should not be considered unusual.
“Our investment in North Carolina reflects what we’ve always said,” he said. “We will take the fight to the battleground states and we will win.”
Candidate visits to the state are also increasing. On Wednesday, Trump conducted his second major event in the state in the past week when he traveled with his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, to Asheboro to deliver a speech on national security. During his rally, Trump said his campaign’s “primary focus is not to get out the vote, but to make sure they don’t cheat.” Because we have all the votes we need.”
That trip came a week after Trump stopped in Asheville to deliver what was billed as an economic policy speech. Vance also had separate North Carolina events that were postponed earlier this month due to weather conditions.
“They say it’s the most important issue,” Trump said in an economic speech last week. “I think crime is right there. I think the line is there personally. We have a lot of important issues because our country has become a third world nation.”
Harris delivered a major economic policy speech in Raleigh on Friday.
“Two days ago, Donald Trump was here in North Carolina,” he said. “He said he was going to talk about the economy. I think you all watched. You know what I’m going to say, but he offered no serious plans to lower costs for middle-class families, no plan to expand access to housing or health care. And that actually, I think for most of us, was not surprising , because we already know his plan. We know the Project 2025 agenda.”
The poll shows a race that has shifted dramatically in Harris’ favor in North Carolina since President Joe Biden’s ouster last month, but remains neck-and-neck between the two major party candidates. A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters this month found Harris leading the state within the margin of error in both an incumbent matchup with Trump and a five-way race that also included third-party candidates.
And a Cook Political Report poll with Amy Walter showed Harris up 2 points over Trump in a multi-candidate poll in North Carolina, a 10-point swing from the Biden-Trump matchup there in May.
Harris also did better in North Carolina than in Nevada and Georgia — two Biden states in 2020 — in the NYT/Siena and Cook polls.
“I have that 2008 feeling,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told NBC News’ Tom Llamas, pointing to Barack Obama’s victory in the state. “We’re an offensive state. They’re going to protect everything they want in 2020. This is one state they want to get. That was their closest loss in 2020. He can win North Carolina because people are excited.
The influx of new spending by the Trump campaign comes as it spent relatively little on the battleground map until last month. In North Carolina, Biden, Harris and their joint fundraising groups spent $12.8 million on advertising from the beginning of 2024 through the end of July, while Trump and his joint committee spent less than $200,000, according to AdImpact. More generally, pro-Trump groups spent a total of $1.1 million, compared to $13.5 million from pro-democracy groups.
One Trump ally, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the recent spending spree, described it as “smart” and “preemptive.”
North Carolina “is tough for a Democrat to win, but you still have to make a play there, and it’s within a few points,” this person said.
Democrats began pushing heavily on North Carolina much earlier this year because it was the only swing state they felt they could flip. Harris himself has visited the state seven times this year, his campaign said, adding that it has opened 23 offices across the state and employs a team of more than 170 staff. In 2020, Biden did not visit the state until September.
Additionally, according to the campaign, volunteer sign-ups have increased significantly since Harris’ resurrection. A Trump campaign official, meanwhile, said their operations in the state so far include 65 paid staffers, more than 50 in-line campaign offices and 150 offices north of the state working for allied organizations.
In general, Democrats are seeing an influx of young Americans — especially around the Research Triangle anchored by Raleigh — and shifting demographics in the state in favor of their candidates. They also indicate that gubernatorial candidates like Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a right-wing Trump acolyte, are useful for their cause and statewide communications.
“We’ve seen about 4 percent population growth overall since 2020, and people moving into the state who register to vote, generally those trends favor the vice president,” said a Harris campaign official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Still, Republicans have a long history of success in winning statewide federal races. At the presidential level, Obama is the only Democrat to win the state in the last 40 years. Biden was the closest to anyone else in 2020.
“I wouldn’t read too much into it,” Jonathan Felts, a longtime North Carolina Republican operative who runs the Robinson super PAC, said in a text message about the Trump campaign’s new spending. “NC was always one of the top seven battleground states and claims [Republicans] spend a little money. And sure, cutting off the head of their ticket and installing Harris has helped narrow the enthusiasm gap for Democrats, but Harris still doesn’t offer NC Democrats a better message to rural North Carolinians.
“This race may have tightened up after the Democrats shuffled their deckchairs, but here in NC, whether it’s HMS Biden or HMS Harris, it’s still going to be a sinking ship on Election Day,” he added. “Harris won’t inspire rural voters to vote the way Obama did when he won by a whopping 0.32 percent in 2008 in North America.”
Trump has also promoted several veterans of North Carolina races to his national team: Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley previously led the North Carolina state party, while RNC Vice Chair Lara Trump is also from the state. A major Republican donor with ties to Trump said the party will not let the state slip away.
“The vote is going to slide in North Carolina, but I can’t imagine that — look, the RNC is basically run by North Carolina, Whatley and Lara Trump,” said the donor, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak openly. “I don’t see either of them willing to sacrifice North Carolina.”
Trump ads airing in North Carolina attack Harris on immigration issues, criticizing him as a “border island” of the Biden administration, describing him as a “failed, weak, dangerously liberal” and even saying he has “blood on his hands.”
Harris’ campaign ads have sought to improve his record on immigration and crime and introduce voters to his biography.
“Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime,” one ad begins. “As a border state prosecutor, he took on drug cartels and jailed gang members for smuggling guns and drugs across the border. As vice president, he supported the strictest border control law in decades.
Kanninen, who ran Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign in North Carolina, said Harris’ focus on the state will only increase as the election nears.
“We’ve been expecting some tough competition in the Tar Heel State,” he said. “We’ve been building a whole year’s campaign with the aim of winning the close competition.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
