“Forecasts indicate that inflation will exceed 5% by the end of this year,” said the head of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński, on Thursday. In his opinion, we can expect inflation to decline by the middle of next year. The inflation target will not be reached before 2026.
Due to rising energy prices, inflation is currently (…) above the NBP target. Available forecasts – ours, external and external – indicate that inflation could even exceed 5 percent by the end of this year. It will be around 5 percent, but it could even exceed 5 percent. There are some elements that are difficult to take into account, (…) certain price increases, for water for example. – explains the President of the National Bank of Poland.
Adam Glapiński stressed at Thursday’s press conference that price dynamics may change in early 2025, when protective measures expire. He added that inflation is influenced by increases in excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol products.
These increases will further drive inflation next year, proportionally to how these products participate in the inflation basket. – he said.
Glapiński explained that when predicting a reduction in inflation from mid-2025, experts rely on government announcements and statements by ministers.
In 2026, when the effects of rising energy prices are absorbed by the economy, inflation will return to target. – predicts the head of the National Bank of Poland.
If it weren’t for energy price increases, inflation would still be in line with the NBP target – he added, adding that in July the price level increased by 1.3 percentage points due to the increase in energy prices, which was a factor beyond the control of the NBP.
Adam Glapiński, sharing inflation forecasts, also said that the decision to cut interest rates could come before 2026.
