WASHINGTON (AP) — Connecticut Republicans will pick candidates in the state primary on Tuesday to challenge two longtime Democratic lawmakers, U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy and U.S. Rep. Jim Himes.
The leading GOP hopefuls in each seat won the party’s endorsement at the state and district conventions, but not by large enough margins to win the nominations outright.
In the US Senate primary, Gerry Smith and Matt Corey are competing for the Republican nomination. Smith serves as the first selectman for the city of Beacon Falls and is also an insurance agent and former small business owner. Corey is a bar owner and a Navy veteran. He was the Republican nominee against Murphy in 2018 and also challenged Democratic U.S. Representative John Larson for the 1st Congressional District in 2012, 2014, and 2016. In 2020, he was the Republican nominee for the state Senate seat. Smith won a majority of delegates in the state assembly in May, but Corey passed the 15 percent threshold needed to force a primary. Democrats nominated Murphy unanimously at their state convention, avoiding the need for a primary.
In the 4th Congressional District, Republicans Bob MacGuffie and Michael Goldstein are each hoping to unseat eight-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Himes. MacGuffie is a former insurance executive and tea party activist from Barack Obama’s presidency. He won the party’s endorsement at the district convention in May by a narrow margin against Goldstein, an attorney and physician who ran unsuccessfully for the 4th District in 2020 and 2022.
Neither seat is a prime target for national Republicans looking to gain control of the Senate or retain control of the House in November. Murphy won again in 2018 with 60 percent of the vote, while President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 with 59 percent. Himes received 59% of the vote in his 2022 re-election bid, while district voters favored Biden by nearly two to one over Republican Donald Trump in 2020.
Connecticut voters will also decide a handful of state legislative races. Democrats have contested primaries in four state Senate districts and 11 state House districts, while Republicans face off in one district in each chamber. All state House seats are up for election in 2024, although most do not hold primaries.
Elections in Connecticut are held at the city level instead of the county level. All 169 cities are holding Republican primaries for the contested U.S. Senate race. With Murphy already renominated for his statewide seat, much of the state does not have a Democratic primary.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
Foundation day
The Connecticut state primary will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 8pm ET.
What’s on the ballot
The Associated Press provides poll results and announces winners in contested primaries for the United States Senate, United States House, state Senate and state House of Representatives.
Who can vote
Only voters registered with a political party can participate in party primaries. Democrats are not allowed to vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or Independent voters cannot participate in either primary.
Decision notes
Connecticut’s largest cities are Bridgeport, Stamford, New Haven, Hartford, and Waterbury, each with a population of over 100,000. Bridgeport and Stamford are in the 4th Congressional District in southwestern Connecticut.
Corey and Goldstein’s past campaigns provide some points of comparison for Tuesday’s contests. In the 2018 Republican primary for the United States Senate, Corey won the nomination with 77% of the vote, carrying all 169 cities. He had margins of at least 50 points in 137 of the state’s 169 cities. In Goldstein’s previous run in the 4th District in 2022, he lost the district-wide vote by 40 percent of the vote. He carried only Easton, Greenwich and Oxford by a narrow margin and lost 14 other towns in the region, most notably Bridgeport and Stamford.
AP does not make predictions and declares the winner only after it has been established that there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If no contest has been called, AP will continue to follow newsworthy developments, such as concessions by candidates or declarations of victory. In doing so, AP makes it clear that it has not yet announced a winner and explains why.
A recount in Connecticut is automatic if the vote margin is less than 0.5% of all votes cast, but no more than 2,000 votes. Recounting is also automatic in races where the margin is less than 20 votes. AP can declare a winner in a race that can be recounted if it can determine that the lead is too great for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.
What do turnout and early voting look like?
In October 2023, Connecticut had nearly 2.5 million registered voters. Of those, 36% were Democrats, 20% were Republicans, and 42% were independents or unaffiliated.
In the 2022 midterms, turnout was 4% of registered voters in the Republican primary. There was no statewide Democratic race in this election. The voter turnout in the 2018 Democratic primary was about 9 percent of registered voters.
In 2023, Connecticut passed an early voting law that was first introduced in the April presidential election. In those races, 26% of Democratic primary voters and 17% of Republican primary voters cast ballots before Election Day. By comparison, about 5% of those who voted in the Republican primary in the 2022 midterms and 6% of those who voted in the 2018 Democratic primary before Election Day.
As of Wednesday, more than 6,100 ballots had been cast before Primary Day, about 54% in the Democratic primary and about 46% in the Republican primary.
How long does the vote count usually take?
In the 2022 midterm primaries, AP will first report results at 8:08 PM ET, eight minutes after polls close. Election night tabulation ended at 12:52 PM ET, when more than 99% of all votes had been counted.
Are we there yet?
On Tuesday, there are 84 days until the November parliamentary elections.
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