The 2024 hurricane season turned out to be unusually calm, with far fewer storms than expected. Christian Dominguez, a researcher at the Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change, suggests a possible reason for the unexpected calm.
September is historically a month of intense hurricane formation in the Atlantic. September 10 is known as the climatological peak of hurricane season. However, the only significant hurricane so far has been Francine, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico, contrary to expectations for this season.
A Glimpse into the 2024 Hurricane Season
So far, only six hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic, four of which have developed into hurricanes. Among them, we highlight Beryl, which reached category 5 in July, becoming the only major hurricane of the year so far. Cyclonic activity stopped increasing for a whole month, causing a lull in the peak season.
- Number of Storms: 6
- Number of Storms: 4
- Big Storm: Beryl (Category 5)
What Stops Hurricanes From Forming?
According to Dr. Christian Dominguez, several factors may have contributed to the low cyclonic activity. The two main elements are the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and La Niña in the Atlantic.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, an atmospheric pattern that moves around the globe in 30- to 60-day cycles, may be in a dormant phase right now, reducing cyclone formation. Additionally, a La Niña in the Atlantic, characterized by cooler waters near the coast of Africa, could also hamper the development of new tropical storms.
How to Prepare for the Rest of the Season?
Although the current hurricane season is calmer, there is still a possibility of new hurricanes forming in the coming months, so it is important to stay informed and prepared for potential emergencies.
- Consult official sources regularly for weather forecasts.
- Be aware of the formation and track of new cyclones.
- Be prepared for emergencies and avoid at-risk areas, such as flood-prone areas.
An example of unpredictable hurricane season behavior is 2013, which despite being forecast to be very active, recorded moderate activity. These examples demonstrate the complexity of seasonal forecasting, which is often influenced by factors such as Saharan dust and dry air masses.
Why Stay Alert During Hurricane Season 2024?
Although activity is still quiet so far, the 2024 hurricane season still needs to be watched out for. The uncertainty of weather forecasts requires continuous monitoring and thorough preparation until the end of the season which ends on November 30.
