Venezuela’s election crisis shows the US administration’s restrictions on the roots of immigration

In the upcoming presidential debate, former President Donald Trump is likely to repeat claims that Vice President Kamala Harris is a failed border czar, to which he will likely respond by saying that Trump blocked a landmark bipartisan border security deal in Congress.

But 48 hours before the settlement, the immigration landscape has been reset. The US-recognized winner of Venezuela’s presidential election on July 28, Edmundo González Urrutia, fled to Spain as President Nicolás Maduro stepped up his campaign of repression and issued an arrest warrant.

The two events, almost side by side, served as a reality check for American voters about the limitations that the US administration, regardless of party, faces in Latin American countries that host hundreds of thousands of border crossings each year.

There are limits to US influence when it comes to the political dynamics of a country or region, said Fernando Rodriguez, a professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in Denver, Colorado. Cuba is one example, he said.

“Once authoritarian regimes take root, they are difficult to change, and external pressure may not do the trick,” Rodriguez said.

More than 7.8 million Venezuelans lived outside their country in June, mostly in other Latin American countries, according to the Office of the Special Envoy for Regional Action on the Situation in Venezuela.

Ahead of Venezuela’s disputed election, more than 40 percent of Venezuelans polled said they would consider leaving the country if Maduro remained in power.

Since the administration of George W. Bush, the United States and other countries have imposed sanctions on people in power in Venezuela and their family members.

As human rights abuses and the dismantling of democratic institutions intensified under Maduro, President Donald Trump pursued “maximum pressure” sanctions to try to oust him from office.

But Maduro held on, and Venezuela’s economic and humanitarian crisis worsened. As a result, the United States has seen more and more Venezuelans show up at its borders.

President Joe Biden eased some of Trump’s crippling sanctions, allowing Chevron and later other companies to operate in Venezuela in an effort to support talks between the opposition and Maduro. But Maduro did not honor the agreement to move toward fair elections, and just six months later the regime reinstated the oil ban on some companies. Chevron is still allowed to operate in the country.

Venezuela’s electoral body, packed with Maduro supporters, has declared Maduro the winner of the country’s July 28 election, but refused to release the results. Opposition leaders say partial tallies show González won 70 percent of the vote.

Other countries in Latin America and Europe have joined the United States in not recognizing Maduro’s election victory. The United States has recognized González as the winner, but not as president-elect.

Questionable election results have led to deadly protests, fueled by a harsh response from Maduro’s forces.

“Few options” and “no quick fix”

Carnegie Visiting Scholar Oliver Stunkel wrote in the article “Emissary”, a publication of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, that the “limited influence” of the United States and a coalition of European and Latin American countries refused to recognize Maduro’s actions. the election result “leaves it with few options”.

“The appetite for a new pressure campaign involving sanctions against Venezuela is weak,” he said, largely because previous sanctions weakened the country’s economy and did not remove Maduro.

“Furthermore, many in this group, particularly the United States, are concerned that broader sanctions could increase emigration,” Stunkel wrote.

As vice president, Harris was tasked with addressing the “root causes” of migration, particularly from the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. This role did not include direct involvement in immigration and enforcement at the US-Mexico border.

His mission was to focus on supporting investments in business and other sectors in these countries, to improve the living conditions of displaced people. There is disagreement about how well he performed the task.

Jason Marczak, an expert on Latin America at the Atlantic Council, wrote that soon after Harris took the border job, it became clear that “there would be no quick fix to decades of insecurity, economic challenges and weak governance, among other factors.” which meet the area.

The number of Venezuelans encountered at the U.S. southwest border this fiscal year appears likely to exceed the previous fiscal year’s total of 266,071.

In July, the total amount for this financial period was 230,582. The financial year 2024 started on October 1, 2023 and ends on September 31, 2024. The total for August of the Customs and Border Protection has not yet been published. But since March, monthly totals have been lower this fiscal year compared to the same month a year earlier. For example, the number of Venezuelans met in April of this financial period was 18,371, while in April 2023 there were 32,733.

Biden again took the deportation of Venezuelans as a condition for the election negotiations with Maduro. They had been stalled for years due to strained relations between the United States and Venezuela and concerns over human rights. He has also established a program for Venezuelans and others to seek legal entry to the United States, granting some temporary protected status.

Trump also granted Venezuelans protection from deportation during his administration.

Rodriguez said Trump had previously criticized Biden’s easing of oil sanctions and would likely condemn Harris in the same vein in the debate.

Dismantling a dictatorship is difficult, he said.

But Biden and Harris can argue that they have more effectively steered Venezuelans against the Maduro regime and eased the pressure to drive people out of the country.

“If you want to do something about migration, you shouldn’t help make things worse for Venezuelans,” Rodriguez said.

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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com