Residents of the occupied areas of Ukraine are furious with the authorities. “Where is our government? Where is the local administration?” – said one of the women. “We don’t understand why they don’t tell us the truth. The enemy has entered our territory, and on TV they keep saying: ‘It’s an emergency situation.’ What kind of emergency is it when there are foreign tanks on our soil?” She called the Russian defense authorities “corrupt” and “crazy.”
The mood in Moscow was great. They were told that the war could be won in a few days. And suddenly the situation changed.
Russia is losing control
The incursion of Ukrainian troops into Russia took the Russian command by surprise. Although there have long been signs that something similar could happen. “The enemy has been gathering forces for two months,” influential Russian blogger Rybar, who has extensive contacts with the army, said on Telegram. “And for two months, accurate information was sent to the useless command. There was enough time to make the right decision,” he wrote.
Andriy Zahorodniuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, said the invasion had already exposed “huge gaps” in Russian military planning.
“The Russians had the impression that they could do whatever they wanted because they could fire as many people as they wanted,” Zahorodniuk said. “And on that basis they took control of the situation. Now it is clear that they do not control the situation. They do not even control their own territory,” he added.
The Ukrainian operation also surprised Kiev’s Western allies. The Ukrainians kept their plans secret. At first, it was thought that this was just a short-term campaign, mainly related to public relations. After a few days, it became clear that this was not the case: Ukraine controlled 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. Above 120,000 Russians were evacuated amid scenes of chaos and destruction – reminiscent of what has been happening in Ukraine since the start of this war.
There have also been reports that Ukrainian forces have taken control of the 6,000-strong town of Suja, through which Russia pumps gas from Western Siberia to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Austria (about half of Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe passed through Suja last year). However, it is unclear how the Ukrainians could use their control over the town – cutting off Russian gas supplies would raise prices on the European energy market.
All indications are that Kiev is taking the matter seriously. Russian media – trying to downplay the Ukrainian invasion – claimed that about a thousand enemy troops had crossed the border. In reality, there were about 10,000 of the most experienced units – 22nd and 88th mechanized brigades and 80th air assault brigade.
Ten days after the start of the operation, its ultimate goals are unclear. It is not known how long the Ukrainians intend to remain on Russian territory? Is this a one-time initiative? Or is it a new tactic and soon Kiev will attack Russian territory again. What will happen in the coming days? “The offensive in the Kursk area is unlikely to go far. Although the Ukrainian columns have advanced 30 kilometers along the roads, the prospects for further advances towards targets such as the city of Kursk or the Kursk nuclear power plant (approximately 75 and 60 kilometers away, respectively) seem unlikely,” emphasizes Mark Galeotti, a prominent expert on Russia.
Is the end of the war near?
Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory has dramatically changed the perception of this war. Kiev has not had similar successes since its victorious offensive in the Kherson and Kharkov regions in the fall of 2022. The last few months have been depressing. More and more Ukrainians wanted the war to end at the price of significant territorial concessions. This operation will not win the war – Russia has occupied 18 percent of Ukraine’s territory since 1991, Ukraine is only one-fortieth of the Kursk Oblast. But it has had a significant impact on morale. “It’s been bad lately, I read every day about how many of our soldiers are dying on the front lines, about children being killed in rocket attacks on hospitals. I don’t know if this will have any real impact on the war. But at least it gives us something to feel like I’m getting better,” said a young Ukrainian woman. After many months of failure, Ukraine finally has something to celebrate.
It is also a signal to Ukraine’s Western allies: “We have achieved success. Victory is still possible.” This is not the end of it: since the beginning of the war, there has been a debate in Western capitals about what the Kremlin’s “red lines” were that could lead to nuclear escalation. One of them would be an attack on Russian territory with Western weapons. This happened during this operation. And nothing happened – except for Putin’s ritual threats. The “red line” argument has once again proven fruitless.
There are other risks
Kiev had hoped that the operation on enemy territory would force the Kremlin to transfer some Russian troops from the Donetsk area – where Russia is making slow but steady progress – to the Kursk area. So far, the Russian side’s moves have not been very significant. There are no signs that the offensive in Donetsk has slowed down. Military analysts also question whether the operation is worth the risk, given that Ukrainian forces are already overstretched. There are other risks as well. For now, Ukraine is dealing with scattered and not very numerous Russian forces. That could change soon. If Russia significantly reinforces its forces in the Kursk region, Ukrainian troops could be trapped in Russia. “The danger is that we will fall into a trap and Russia will crush us under its teeth,” warns a Ukrainian military source.
Everyone is waiting for the end of this war. Could Kiev’s extremely bold operation hasten that end? Prominent military theorist Michael Clarke answers this question this way: “Political success will depend on the effect this has on the Kremlin psyche: will it raise real doubts in Putin’s inner circle about whether the war is really worth the rising costs? The Kremlin should recognize the attack as a ‘provocation,’ a ‘terrorist attack.’ But right now, even to Russia’s state-controlled media, it looks like a normal war.”
