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Kamala Harris quickly rallied Democrats around her candidacy after Joe Biden left the race.
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Harris’ endorsement secured Biden last month.
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But the recently released Times/Siena poll is a reminder that the 2024 race is still a shoe-in.
Vice President Kamala Harris has dazzled the Democrats as the party’s new presidential candidate.
After President Joe Biden withdrew from the presumptive nomination in July, the party quickly coalesced around him. And any concerns about his murky 2020 presidential campaign ended up being largely laid to rest.
His popularity has risen among likely voters. He quickly built a Democratic base and saw a surge in support among independents, helping him gain a lead in state polls in recent weeks. And last week, the Harris campaign reported raising $361 million in August alone — nearly three times the $130 million former President Donald Trump brought in that same month.
Still, in a reminder of how volatile American elections can be, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump with a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters. The survey may indicate that Harris’ momentum has stalled or may be anomalous. New opinion polls in the coming days will tell more, as will Tuesday’s presidential debate.
What is certain is that many of the complexities of the 2024 race never disappeared after Biden left the race. That’s why the race remains nail-biting at this late stage.
Competition within margin of error
Despite several polls showing Harris’ advantages in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, the leads are generally in the single digits and within the margin of error.
According to the latest Times poll, Trump’s approval rating among likely voters was 48 percent, and Harris’s approval rating was 47 percent.
The result is unchanged from a national survey conducted by the Times in July.
Some important numbers emerge from the latest Times poll.
Harris saw majority support among voters under the age of 45. He performed strongest among voters aged 30-44, winning this group by nine points (51-42%). Meanwhile, Trump led among Gen X and voters 65 and older by 10 points.
For Harris, younger voter turnout will be key as he seeks to win traditional swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and hold onto Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona and Nevada. Harris’ appeal to young voters is a major reason he’s been able to bring North Carolina back into the Democratic game, which was far from even three months ago when Biden was struggling there.
In the Times survey, Harris also had a 10-point lead (52% to 42%) among suburban voters, a significant showing of support that could make a huge difference if he widens his lead over his GOP rival.
Despite Trump’s lead in the Times survey, the problems in the former president’s neighborhoods are perhaps one of the biggest threats to his campaign, as it would likely undermine his ability to win in a critical state like Pennsylvania if Harris gains more power closer to the election.
Voters want to know more about Harris
The presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia is perhaps the most critical opportunity for Harris to reach voters who are still on the fence about who they will support at the top of the ticket.
In a Times poll, 27% of likely voters said they wanted to “learn more” about Harris. Meanwhile, only 9 percent of likely voters expressed a similar opinion of Trump.
Of those voters who said they wanted to learn more about Harris, nearly 7 in 10 said they wanted to hear more about the vice president’s policies and plans. An additional 10% said they wanted to learn “all” about Harris.
So, in practice, Trump boasts of a narrow lead against a candidate who remains a blank slate for a significant part of the voters.
The Democratic National Convention in Chicago was Harris’ first step out of the shadows and onto the national stage. But the debate in Philadelphia will give him time to express his views on what remains the election’s biggest issue: the economy.
In the latest Times poll, Trump had a 13-point lead (55% to 42%) over Harris on who would be better prepared to manage the economy.
Trump, who has relentlessly criticized Democrats on the issue, has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.
Harris has begun to cut into Trump’s lead on the issue in recent weeks, which had boosted Biden as a candidate. Other surveys, including a Financial Times-Michigan Ross poll released last month, showed Harris with a one-point lead (42% to 41%) over Trump among registered voters on economic issues.
This close result is just another reflection of the competitive nature of the race, a dynamic that will likely remain the same through November.
Read the original article on Business Insider
