“Weekly News”: Waiting for the announced attack must be terrible…
Yossi Melman: : — The Iranians will attack soon, perhaps this week, and will fire missiles and direct drones at us. They will attack simultaneously with Hezbollah or independently of Hezbollah. This time, I expect them to launch a major retaliatory strike that could spiral out of control. I will try to explain why this might happen.
Well, it seems that all parties involved, including Iran, do not want a retaliatory strike to lead to war. So I assume that the Iranians will decide to attack only military installations. The problem is that even if they limit themselves to military purposes, both the Tehran regime and Hezbollah like retaliation equally. If they attack Beirut or leave Ismail Haniya in the heart of Tehran, in a guest house run by the Revolutionary Guards, they will try to do something similar in Tel Aviv. So let’s assume the worst-case scenario: “military purposes”, that the target would be the HaKirja government district in central Tel Aviv, specifically the headquarters of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Defense Ministry building located there. Let’s imagine that the missiles fired at these targets will for some reason not be intercepted by Israeli missile defenses and shot down, but will miss and hit, for example, Israel’s largest shopping mall, the Azrieli Center Mall. After all, the three tallest skyscrapers in Tel Aviv are located about 100 meters from government buildings! In addition, about 150 meters from the IDF headquarters is Orchestra Square (Habima Square), where anti-government demonstrations take place. Tel Aviv’s largest hospital is located 200 meters from the likely targets. So if an Iranian missile misses its target and hits a hospital or a shopping mall…
…there will be bloodshed, there will be a massacre of civilians….
…and consequently, an all-out war. This is a very difficult week for Israel. People are terrified and preparing to attack. They have cleared their shelters and gathered the necessary supplies of water and food. There is very little traffic in Tel Aviv. Almost everyone is staying at home. The situation is tense because things could get out of control. Yes, we can count on the help of international forces led by the US. There is an aircraft carrier, dozens of ships in the area, American and British, I assume also French, and maybe even Dutch. Hundreds of planes, anti-aircraft batteries and anti-missile systems to intercept missiles.
During the previous retaliatory strike in April, Iran fired more than 30 missiles, cruise missiles and drones, but only four missiles hit a military base in southern Israel, causing little damage to a building or office. In short, it was a failure. Now it could be worse. The situation is very delicate because there is no end in sight to the war with Hamas. Netanyahu is playing with fire because, knowing that our security depends on American military aid, he does not listen to the Americans who are pressuring him for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. OK, the United States will help us again because they cannot abandon Israel. They certainly cannot abandon us to Iran, but even the Americans can lose their patience.
What Natajahu is doing is pure madness…
— This madness could cost us dearly. Recently, the contents of President Joe Biden’s last phone conversation with Netanyahu, which took place a week or two after the Israeli prime minister returned from Washington, were leaked to the media. Well, the US president reportedly told Netanyahu not to intimidate him about ending the war in Gaza, because he knows perfectly well that he is bluffing again. Biden is angry and reportedly told Bibi that he was helping him for the last time. The Biden administration has made it clear to Netanyahu that if it wants America to continue to defend Israel, it must listen to it. That is the situation. There is an absolute minimum that must be respected in relations between friends and allies – they listen to each other and take into account each other’s advice and requests.
That sounds like an ultimatum.
— Yes, but Netanyahu is a gambler. He has played political games and lost more than once. He lost the game against Obama when he spoke in Congress against the nuclear deal with Iran. The deal was signed, but Iran is closer than ever to having nuclear weapons because Netanyahu encouraged Trump to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Tehran. In 2016, he bet on Trump to save Israel, but there was no progress during his presidency. In this election, he is betting on Trump again because he considers Biden a loser. The problem is that Trump resents him for finally agreeing to acknowledge that Biden won the 2020 election, even though Netanyahu was the last Western leader to send Biden a congratulatory message. When Bibi met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, the Republican presidential candidate reportedly told him that he had to end the war (laughs).
Is Netanyahu hoping for a miracle or is he trying to buy time…
— Buying time is his specialty. He wants to drag the Americans into a war with Iran. That’s his plan.
I hope he fails. Coming back to the war with Hamas, do you think it cannot be won by military force alone?
– NO. Do you remember any war that was decided only on the battlefield, without any negotiation? This only happens when one of the belligerents agrees to complete and unconditional surrender.
Like Germany in 1945?
— For example, like Germany in 1945. However, Germany’s capitulation occurred because some German commanders realized that further fighting was futile and that they could not win this war. They surrendered because they were able to admit defeat. When talking about the war with Hamas, Netanyahu puts himself in Churchill’s shoes. He speaks of the need for total victory, victory at all costs, the alternative to which is surrender…
Is it about Churchill’s famous “blood, sweat and tears” speech, during which he said, “I will answer in one word: Victory. Victory at all costs”?
– Exactly. Even if this approach makes sense and this war can be won, it is necessary to have a plan for the Gaza Strip so that, after defeating Hamas, something like a new Germany can be created there, the one that was created after the defeat of the Nazis in 1945. The new Germany was ruled by a German government that represented the German people. Unfortunately, Netanyahu has no plan, no idea for a Palestinian government. Why? Because for him the Palestinian nation is the enemy and the Palestinian organizations are enemies. This includes: that is why he is not even willing to consider the peaceful alternative to Gaza that the United States has offered. A compromise solution is also proposed by the PLO, the UAE and Qatar – a new demilitarized government in Gaza, which would be established for the good of the cause and the people, the poor inhabitants of Gaza. Even some representatives of Hamas would be ready for such a compromise solution. Of course, as long as the plans are discussed, for them such statements are only tactical, because they have not renounced their main goal, which is the destruction of Israel. But theoretically they are open, they play the game, they put on a good face. Unfortunately, Netanyahu rejects all the alternatives to war that are offered to him. He says no, because no. He does not behave this way for ideological reasons. It is not about ideology. He says “no” because for him war is an end in itself.
A political lifeline? A survival line?
— Exactly, to survive as prime minister. That’s why he needs a constant war, almost like Putin…
I feel sorry for both the Israelis and the Palestinians because they have become hostages to short-sighted policies…
— It is true, it is a pity. Moreover, it is precisely because of this particular approach to the war that Netanyahu is not eager to release the hostages still held by Hamas. Of course, he does not say this directly because he cannot. He says that it is the duty of the prime minister to do everything in his power to bring them home. The truth is that by refusing to conclude a ceasefire, he prevents the release of the hostages. Every time he gets closer to an agreement, he imposes new preconditions. The Americans, the Qataris, the Egyptians, everyone involved in the ceasefire negotiations is desperate. Everyone involved in the trial knows that dragging out the case using various tricks is Netanyahu’s game. All Israeli commanders and heads of organizations responsible for security, from the chief of the General Staff, through the head of military intelligence, to the head of Mossad and the head of Shin Bet, also know this. When questioned privately, they say Netanyahu is blocking them in war cabinet meetings, even though they convince him that there is no risk from a national security perspective and that a ceasefire can be concluded for at least a few weeks.
I just published an article in Foreign Policy magazine about Netanyahu’s attitude towards the hostages. I believe that Netanyahu does not really want their release because that would mean a ceasefire, and his far-right coalition partners – Itamar Ben Gevir and Bezalel Smotrich – are threatening to leave the government if there is a ceasefire. Personally, I do not think they will leave, but Netanyahu is weak, he is paranoid, and he does not want to risk them leaving the government. If the current coalition collapses, new elections will be called and Netanyahu will have to go.
And it will be finished.
— Of course, it’s as simple as pie. Most Israelis are aware of this, but the foreign public either doesn’t understand, doesn’t want to understand, or doesn’t care at all. Netanyahu is not the solution to the problem, he is the problem. He’s like a cork stuck in a bottle of wine. You can’t pull it out or push it out. Netanyahu is stuck like a traffic jam, and with him all of Israel is stuck.
