WASHINGTON (AP) – Resources are being poured into some highly competitive congressional races that are expected to help determine the balance of power in Washington next year.
Democrats need to flip just four seats to regain control of the House, while Republicans hope to expand their majority and make it easier to get their priorities across, something they have struggled to do in a divided government.
While the most hotly contested House races tend to feature newer incumbents who are still building their names, a few longtime congressional veterans also face races due to changes in the demographics of their districts.
Overall, control of the House is likely to be limited to the 16 Republican-held districts that Democratic President Joe Biden carried in 2020 and the five Democratic-held districts that Republican Donald Trump won. Such districts are rich targets for both parties.
Here’s a look at six of those toss-up races to watch this fall.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
National Republicans have previously tried to unseat three-term Democratic incumbent Jared Golden. This time, they believe they’ve found the right candidate in Republican Austin Theriault, a state legislator and former NASCAR driver.
Nearly $16 million in political advertising has been earmarked for the district, which Trump won twice. That’s a lot of ad buys in a relatively cheap market. Planned spending is roughly evenly split between Republican and Democratic groups, according to AdImpact, which tracks media buying. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., visited the area this month to highlight the importance of the race.
Golden, a Marine Corps veteran, has opposed the Biden administration in some votes. Notably, he was the only Democrat to vote against Biden’s COVID relief bill in March 2021.
Golden later voted for major bills to increase infrastructure spending and expand benefits for veterans exposed to burns and other toxic environments, and he voted for Biden’s key health and climate bill, called the Inflation Reduction Act.
New York’s 4th Congressional District
Democrats see Long Island as a prime opportunity to win back congressional seats and regain the House majority, starting with a race that features a rematch from two years ago between Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Democratic challenger Laura Gillen.
According to AdImpact, the groups plan to spend nearly $11 million on advertising in this race, with Democratic supporters earmarking nearly $7 million for ads and Republicans nearly $4 million.
Gillen also had a cash advantage as of June 30, according to the Federal Election Commission, by $2.5 million compared to D’Esposito’s nearly $2.2 million. It is unusual for a challenger to have more cash than an incumbent.
D’Esposito is a former NYPD detective who won in 2022, even though Biden carried his district by about 15 percentage points in 2020. D’Esposito has made public safety a priority in his campaigns and boasts that he has provided millions of federal dollars to help local law enforcement.
Gillen is a former supervisor of the town of Hempstead, Nassau County’s largest city, and has emphasized his support for a woman’s right to choose an abortion.
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District
Matt Cartwright is used to competing in close competition – and winning. The Democrat began his career in Congress in 2013. Based on the resources pouring into this race, he’s in another dogfight. According to AdImpact, Democratic groups plan to spend about $13 million on ads, and Republicans more than $10 million.
His opponent is Republican Rob Bresnahan, who touts his experience as CEO of an electrical contractor and his reinvestment in local communities.
Cartwright represents a northeastern Pennsylvania district that went with Trump in 2020, even though Biden is from Scranton.
Cartwright voted against a sweeping House GOP bill to build a border wall and impose new restrictions on asylum seekers, but he’s highlighting the vote to deport criminal immigrants in his ads in an effort to curb Republican criticism of border issues.
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
Republican Representative David Schweikert is used to winning congressional elections comfortably. No longer. Schweikert won his suburban Phoenix district by just 3,200 votes in 2022 against a relatively unknown challenger who received little support from national Democrats.
This time, the House Majority PAC, which focuses on electing Democrats, plans to spend more than $6 million on ads, compared to about $4.9 million from the leading Republican group, the Congressional Leadership Fund.
Schweikert, who is serving his seventh term, will face Amish Shah, a physician and former Arizona state representative who recently emerged victorious in the Democratic primary.
California’s 13th Congressional District
Freshman Republican Rep. John Duarte won by just 564 votes in 2022, doing so in a district where Biden was in double digits two years earlier. That makes this area in the Central Valley an automatic priority for both sides in a rematch from two years ago.
The Democratic challenger is Adam Gray, who served 10 years in the California State Assembly.
Pro-Democratic groups plan to spend about $7.6 million on ad buys. Republicans have booked about $6.1 million in airtime, according to AdImpact.
The state’s farm belt is more conservative than most of California, with cost of living and access to irrigation water both top challenges and priorities.
Duarte emphasizes his farming roots, growing grapes, almonds and pistachios, and says reining in spending in Washington would reduce inflation. Gray touts money he’s helped deliver to the region from Sacramento to store water and repair aging canals.
Democrats hope Gray will benefit from a presidential election that boosts voter turnout, unlike midterm elections that often benefit the party that doesn’t control the White House. But Duarte can take solace from winning the March primary earlier this year with nearly 55 percent of the vote to Gray’s 45 percent. In California, the top two vote-getters regardless of party advance to the general election.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Trump-backed Joe Kent in a rematch from two years ago, which the Democrat won by less than one percentage point.
Republicans see Gluesenkamp Perez as a vulnerable district, which Trump won by more than 4 percentage points in 2020. Republican groups have set aside nearly $6 million in political ad buys, while Democratic groups plan to spend about $5.3 million.
Gluesenkamp Perez supports access to abortion and policies to combat climate change, but also speaks openly about gun ownership. Meanwhile, Kent says Gluesenkamp Perez is just pretending to be moderate.
The southern border can be a decisive issue in the race. The American Action Network, a Republican-leaning advocacy group, has run ads in which the incumbent said in March 2023 that “nobody stays up at night worrying about the southern border.” He went on to state that people stay awake worrying about pocketbook issues, such as potentially losing their home or having their child drop out of school.
But the comment has clearly become a focal point for Republicans, who accuse Democrats of not doing enough to curb illegal immigration.
In campaign ads, Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizes his willingness to work with Republicans on border issues. The ad, with some local public safety officials endorsing him, ends with him saying he accepts the message of “doing everything we can to secure the border and keep Washington safe.”
