On Monday morning, the euro/zloty exchange rate remained at around PLN 4.28, with minimal changes. Limited fluctuations also apply to the dollar, which was trading at approximately PLN 3.87. At the same time, it was necessary to pay a little more for the Swiss franc, which cost almost PLN 4.56.
What’s next for the zloty?
The Polish currency is still supported by global factors. On Monday, the dollar corrected last week’s gains, losing slightly against the euro and other currencies, which is supported by rising expectations regarding the start of interest rate cuts in the United States. The latest domestic market data also seem to speak in favor of the zloty. Persistently high inflation combined with an accelerating economy does not help to ease the NBP’s stance on interest rates.
Even so, in the assessment Marek Rogalski, currency analyst at DM BOŚ, the potential for continued strengthening of the zloty is rather limited. – Locally, the zloty remains strong, but a more expansive budget and the narrative about an overly strong zloty may suggest that strengthening of the national currency is may be more difficult in the following quarters, the scale of risks lies more on the supply side. The MPC policy remains a stabilizing factor, but here too the market expects changes in rhetoric – writes Rogalski in his morning commentary.
