The United States is a country in complete doubt

At the beginning of the 21st century^to In the 20th century, the United States remains the world’s leading power. However, the 2024 presidential elections are opening in the context of extreme tension between the Democratic and Republican camps. Despite the good results of the American economy, different reasons can explain this polarization in minds.

In “Facts and figures in the United States in the 21st century”, recently published by Éditions Ellipses and from which we present a few excerpts below, economists Thérèse Rebière (National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts) and Isabelle Lebon (University of Arts) Caen Normandy turn to the factors of this polarization, from the consequences of the three crises that the country has suffered (the attacks of September 11, 2001, the subprime crisis, the Covid crisis) to the international situation when the United States entered the crisis; faced with the increasing challenges posed by China, states hesitate between interventionism and isolation, including the demographic evolution of the country in the context of persistent inequalities between communities.

Crises…

The attacks of September 11, 2001 produced images of the Twin Towers that will remain perhaps the most traumatic images in American collective memory. World Trade CenterThe New York business district of Manhattan is burning after the planes hit it, then collapsed in a cloud of debris one after another. Because of these images, and because nothing had allowed the public to foresee such an attack, these attacks came as a great shock to American society, as to much of the world.

Read more: How is September 11 etched into our memories?

The heart of the American economy, the nerve center of finance and the symbol of the market economy, is the one affected by this situation. These attacks […] It is a challenge to the image of American superiority, but also to the model of society and economic development advocated by democratic and liberal nations. […]

[Les] Wars launched in the name of defending democracy have led Americans to doubt the validity and effectiveness of their own institutions. Because while the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have failed to achieve democratization, authoritarianism has performed so well economically that it now threatens China, which is under American dominance. Americans’ certainties at the end of the 20th century^to Doubts about its status as the undisputed superpower of the century and the superiority of its institutions have given way to doubts that arose from the ashes of September 11, 2001.

…internal challenges that emerge and are highlighted…

The economic and health crisis has highlighted decades of racial inequalities in the United States that have been compounded since 2010, especially when compared to Hispanic and African-American populations. In 2017, an African American earned on average 66% of the annual salary of a “white” person. In 2019, median wealth was $188,200 for a “white” household, but only $24,100 for a “black” household.

Despite historic declines in minority poverty rates, the health crisis unfolds in a context where income inequalities attributable to ethnicity, which remain particularly high in areas of the former Confederate States, have been increasing at the federal level since 2010. If the resilience of the American economy, stemming from the flexibility of the labor market, allowed it to make a strong recovery once the economy reopened in mid-2020, the health crisis has exacerbated the stigma of ethnic inequalities and played a strong role in access to education in the labor market, which in turn means lower living standards and less favorable health conditions to resist the virus.

Read more: Covid-19 time bomb in the United States

[L]African Americans still have a higher unemployment rate than Hispanics, who are still higher than whites. After all, Asians generally have the lowest unemployment rates, but only slightly lower than whites. It should also be noted that in particularly favorable circumstances, when the average unemployment rate is low, the Hispanic rate approaches that of whites.

This phenomenon was also observed before the crisis. subprimeBefore the Covid crisis and as part of the strong recovery after the health crisis. When it is difficult to find employees, it is likely that companies will hire Hispanics more readily, but this does not seem to be the case for African Americans. Even in economically favorable times, unemployment rates are much higher than in other communities. Clearly, not all observed differences are directly related to belonging to one community or another; they can also be explained by other characteristics that are regularly associated with that community, and in particular, the average level of education of each person.

Like most Western countries, America’s debt has been rising rapidly in recent years. The development of this debt is largely explained by the economic crisis that the United States has faced, but it has its own specifics. Because it is not only the federal public debt that has risen, but also private debt, especially household debt, through the abundance of real estate-backed loans (mortgages) that the crisis has brutally exposed. subprime Because of the alarming increase in student loans in 2007 and especially over the last decade.

The federal public debt is a highly political issue, as raising its ceiling requires Congressional approval, which can lead to more or less prolonged blocking by the administration in the event of disagreement. Despite regular opposition on the issue between the executive branch and Congress, the debt ceiling has continued to rise, leading some observers to question the effectiveness of a system of controls that has never really been able to limit the debt burden. The problem of America’s federal debt has also been in the geopolitical news. In fact, while the majority of this debt is in the United States, China has been one of the two main foreign holders of the federal debt for several years, highlighting the interdependence of these two economies.

…and international issues

[L]The United States’ significant trade deficit with China has put pressure on successive American administrations as public opinion now views the Middle Kingdom as an enemy of American jobs. The American consumer society is actually faced with a common paradox: the desire for a glut of cheap goods that China has been adept at providing for years does not square well with the preservation of the national industrial complex that provides it.

The American public’s concern is understandable. Since the 1990s, China has always exported a lot to the United States. According to one study, […]More than 2 million American industrial jobs were destroyed by Chinese imports between 1999 and 2011. The extent of trade tensions under Donald Trump’s mandate can best be understood by considering China’s importance in total American imports.

Indeed, imports from China accounted for only 5.58% of all American imports in 1993, far behind Canada (18.83%), Japan (18.31%) and Mexico (6.75%). Since then, this figure has been steadily increasing. In 2002, China came in second.^to The US is the leading partner in terms of imports, ahead of Mexico, followed by 1.^well It was a partner with 16.25% of imports in 2006. Imports of Chinese products reached almost 22% of the total imports of the US in 2018. From these few statistics, we understand that the US wants to rebalance its trade with China.