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Donald Trump appeared to publicly praise union busting in a conversation with Elon Musk this week.
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Political science experts said the former president’s comments could hurt him in some swing states.
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Unions have a lot of political power, and angry members can mobilize against Trump.
Former President Donald Trump’s latest comments about striking workers could have political ramifications for the Republican nominee in some key swing states as the race for the presidency heats up.
Two political science experts told Business Insider that Trump’s comments could energize a historically powerful caucus at a crucial moment in the race.
In a conversation with Elon Musk about X on Monday, Trump congratulated the Tesla CEO for being “the biggest cutter.”
“I see what you’re doing. You walk in and say, ‘Do you want to quit?'” I won’t mention the name of the company, but they go on strike, and you say you’re all out.
It is unclear which company Trump was referring to. Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to Business Insider’s request for comment.
The short-term fallout from Trump’s comments was immediate. The United Auto Workers union filed unfair labor practice charges against both Trump and Musk, claiming the men threatened workers who might want to exercise their right to unionize.
The Labor Relations Board announced that it will investigate the charges, which are essentially a request for an investigation. Under federal law, it is illegal to fire union workers who participate in a protected strike.
“Unforced error”
“It was an inevitable mistake by Trump,” said Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California.
It’s true, experts said, that union members have historically voted Democratic. President Joe Biden modeled himself as the most pro-union president in decades — a moniker that Vice President Kamala Harris seems eager to embrace.
It’s also true that some union members have been increasingly open to voting Republican in recent years, especially those in industry-like positions, Grose said. Trump won over blue-collar workers in 2016, in part because of his campaign messaging around the economy, when he opposed trade deals that he said hurt American workers.
With Harris’ numbers up, Trump clearly wants at least some of the union vote. He has taken aim at the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, a 1.4 million-member group that has yet to endorse a candidate.
Speaking at the Republican National Convention, Sean O’Brien, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, told Politico of Trump’s recent comments: “Firing workers for organizing, striking and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism.”
But the former president’s stance, which he broadcast to more than a million listeners on Monday, could jeopardize that coveted support, political experts said.
“Given how much this race has tightened, Trump can’t afford to lose any voter groups, especially union people,” said Trish Crouse, a political science and public administration fellow at New University. Haven.
Swing state mobilization
While it’s possible that Trump lost a small group of previously undecided union voters with his comments on Monday, the more likely result of his apparent disdain for striking workers is that he angered a large group of Democratic voters who just found a new reason to leave. and trying to get more voters on his side, Grose said.
“There’s a difference between getting out to vote because it’s part of your job versus being really motivated to mobilize,” Grose said.
Unions have long been a powerful political force due to their highly sought-after positions and organizational acumen. But their real power comes from mobilizing, Grose said, adding that their influence on elections has often been greater than their actual membership numbers.
Although membership has declined sharply in recent decades, experts said labor groups still wield political power, especially in a couple of key swing states.
In the three states where Harris and Trump are likely to fight on election night, union membership is over 12 percent.
According to 2023 government data, Nevada has 171,000 union members and 201,000 workers who are unionized, meaning they did not claim union membership but work union-covered jobs; Michigan has 564,000 union members and 623,000 people have union representation; Pennsylvania has 749,000 union members and 822,000 unionized workers, representing 12.8% and 14.1% of state employment, respectively.
That’s more than 1.6 million unionized people in just three states who hardly appreciate Trump laughing with a billionaire about undermining workers’ rights, experts said.
“It lights a fire under the members in the ranks to get them going,” he added.
The United Auto Workers union was quick to hit back at Trump’s recent comments, with President Shawn Fain calling the former president a “crook” and suggesting he opposes “everything our union stands for.”
While it’s possible Trump’s comments could also have the opposite effect of energizing business and union opponents, political experts said even business leaders may be wary of speaking out in favor of union-busting language.
“I think it was stupid to say that publicly, and especially not a good time to say something like that,” Grose said.
Read the original article on Business Insider
