In fact, the scale of Russian attacks has decreased somewhat in recent days. Just a week ago, the Russians near Pokrovsk managed to attack 55-60 times a day. In recent days, they have not exceeded 40 attacks per day. It is difficult to say that stabilization is taking place. However, the scale of attacks across the entire section of the front has decreased. The attackers do not have the strength to exert constant pressure on the entire front line. The Russians are not capable of attacking in five or seven directions as they have done so far. They have enough strength to attack the two most important ones – Pokrovsk and Kurakhov.
There is relative peace in the remaining sectors and the scale of the attacks has been limited to a few or a dozen per day. But it is not as colorful as it might seem at first glance. Along the entire front, the Russians have advanced almost 10 km. Russian troops are located approximately 8 km from the city center, which is already under fire not only from rocket artillery, but also from barrel artillery. In general, the Ukrainians are in a difficult situation and the front is crumbling. There is an urgent need to rotate tired units and create a larger reserve of personnel.
This would happen soon, because the Ukrainian Supreme Command was supposed to send four or five brigades that had previously been held in reserve to the Pokrov sector of the front. Now they are actively engaging Russian troops near Pokrovsk, carrying out local counterattacks. There is no photographic or film confirmation yet, but Russian sources admit that Ukrainian forces have begun offensive operations.
Pokrovsk above all
Despite the withdrawal of approximately 15 battalions from Donbass to Kursk Oblast, Putin’s supporters did not weaken direct pressure on the city. It was simply that some of the equipment, such as armored vehicles, tanks and infantry, originally intended to reinforce the offensive in the Pokrov direction, was redirected to the Kursk area. This only limited the amount of reserves that the Russians could mobilize on the front line. That is why they limited the scale of attacks near Vuhledar, Toretsk, Lyman and Kupiansk, concentrating on Pokrovsk, which has become a key target of Russian attacks in recent months.
The Russians still have a significant advantage in the Donbass. The Second All-Army, whose units are fighting in the Pokrovsk region, according to British intelligence reports, outnumbers the Ukrainian forces by about four to one. In turn, Serhiy Dobryak, head of the Pokrovsk military administration, claims that in his section the Russians have a ten to one advantage. There is still a long way to go before the front in the Donbass is stabilized, as General Syrski says.
Operational pause
The Russians are preparing to attack the city, which is quite well fortified. In order to carry out the operation safely, they must reinforce their wings, especially the southern wing, which is exposed to a Ukrainian counterattack due to the terrain and natural obstacles.
Therefore, it was important for the Russians to capture the Nevelskie settlement. They have managed to do this in recent days. In this section, the Russians are trying to encircle the Ukrainian forces or at least push them back across the Vovcha River. This, in turn, threatens to encircle the defenders in the Hirnyk and Kurakhivka area. If they achieve this, they will actually strengthen the left flank of the enemy group advancing on Pokrovsk. Even without adequate equipment reserves, the Russians have human reserves that can push the Ukrainians back in “meat attacks”. According to analyzes of various intelligence centers, the Russians have enough reserves to continue intensive operations near Pokrovsk for another four to six weeks.
So expect intense attacks on the city over the next week to at least gain adequate starting positions for the attack. Especially if reports about sending well-rested Ukrainian brigades to this section turn out to be true. The question is whether the Ukrainians will be able to attack with enough force to drive the Russians out.
The Russians continue to bombard the city, which is gradually turning into a sea of ruins, among which the Ukrainians are building strongholds. If urban fighting breaks out, it could be even more violent than in Bakhmut.
The problem is that the Ukrainians are not very good at fighting in urban areas, where they lose their technical advantage and the Russians gain in mass. For now, there is a fog of war on the front and all reports are just rumors and speculation. In a few days it will be possible to tell what the real situation is. For now, what is certain is that there is peace on almost the entire front and the Russians are trying to capture Pokrovsk at all costs.
