The Kremlin’s last red line. Crossing it could change the course of the war

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The Kremlin’s last red line. Crossing it could change the course of the war

By attacking Russia’s Kursk region on August 6, the Ukrainians proved that the red lines that the Kremlin had been drawing since the early days of the invasion no longer exist. However, the US administration has a different view. The Ukrainians are still struggling with a fundamental constraint that, if lifted, could change the course of the war. The White House has yet to show any goodwill on this issue.

There is no doubt that the United States is the largest arms supplier to Ukraine. Data from the German Institute for World Economics in Kiel show that from February 2022 to February 2024, the Americans supplied or agreed to supply Kiev with weapons and military equipment worth $46.2 billion. For comparison, Germany, second on the list, transferred weapons worth $10.7 billion to Ukraine. That’s more than four times less.

While no one can deny America’s involvement in the Ukrainians’ fight for freedom, It is also necessary to state clearly that Washington is not doing everything to help Ukrainian forces defeat the Russian occupier.. Western countries, led by the US, have not yet used their full potential. These capabilities – combined with Ukraine’s will to defend its homeland – are crucial to defeating the Kremlin.

Washington is still wary of crossing the red lines the Kremlin drew at the start of the invasion. And the Ukrainians have shown many times that there are no red lines. A great example, because it is the most recent, is the offensive in the Kursk Oblast, on the border with Ukraine, which seemed impossible at the beginning of a full-scale war. The Ukrainians attacked the territory of the aggressor. So what? And nothing. Russia has once again demonstrated that it likes to make threats, but threats are not followed by any actions.

The West, including America, has repeatedly violated red lines. It is worth noting, among others: deliveries of American M142 HIMARS multi-launch rocket launchers, tanks (American M1 Abrams, British Challenger 2 and German Leopard 2) and, recently, F-16 multi-role fighters. Moscow had no choice but to threaten, saying that the Western equipment “will burn” as well as other weapons transferred from February 24, 2022, according to Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. Nothing more.

The naive and illusory concept of the so-called Russian red lines, which served as the basis for the assessment of this war by some allies, has collapsed in recent days, somewhere near Suja. – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said recently, referring to this city in Kursk Oblast occupied by Ukrainian forces.

“Russia’s Ukrainian invasion has upended the grim narrative of war, and Kiev is using its battlefield successes to launch a new pressure campaign on the US to lift its last restrictions on its ability to strike with long-range weapons on Russian territory,” writes Politico. The portal’s journalists spoke to eight officials from the United States, Ukraine and other European countries who have knowledge of discussions about the use of long-range weapons by Ukrainian forces. All were granted anonymity so they could speak freely.

Some of the talks mentioned by Politico’s sources involved allowing Ukrainians to attack Russian airports and supply depots using British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles. Given that the missiles contain American components, the Biden administration would have to consent to their use. The outlet reports that The British government has not yet made a formal request on this matter..

However, a US administration official said that the US Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles or ATACMS long-range missiles may not be as effective as is often said. The Ukrainian military has a limited arsenal of missiles, and those it does have may not be able to hit key Russian targets because they have been moved out of range. The speech includes: about fighter aircraft attacking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

It is important to note that Ukrainians have been given permission for some time to use American long-range weapons on Russian territory, but only as a means of defense – attack Russian systems located near the border. The politician writes that However, some prominent American politicians are open to Washington allowing Ukraine greater freedom in using American weapons..

One of them is Democrat Jason Crow, a member of the Colorado House of Representatives. He said that supports the transfer of more long-range weapons to Kiev, as well as giving Ukrainian forces “greater flexibility in the use of these weapons”. Crow said the conflict has changed since its beginning and that U.S. and allied policies must keep pace with those changes.

It is important to emphasize that the politician believes that The Ukrainians have proven that they are a responsible partner and “know how to use” the long-range weapons supplied by the US..

A similar opinion is expressed by Republican Ken Calvert, a member of the House of Representatives from California, who chairs the subcommittee that controls a significant portion of the Pentagon budget. He criticized the current administration for preventing Kiev’s forces from making wider use of long-range American weapons, arguing that “containing the Ukrainians will prolong the war.”

At some point the war will have to end and if the Ukrainians cannot defend their territory by attacking (Russian) supply chains (…), it will be difficult to bring them (Russians) to the (negotiating) table. – he said. The progress made in Russia is promising, but it will be difficult to maintain it if they cannot use certain types of weapons systems – he added, quoted by Politico.

Politico writes that Ukrainians have long tried to persuade White House officials to increase support for long-range weapons. They mentioned “Joe Biden’s legacy”; argued that the current administration will be remembered as the one that helped Ukraine win or didn’t do enough by maintaining restrictions. So far, this argument has failed to convince either Joe Biden or national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Both Ukrainian and American lawmakers have repeatedly tried to persuade policymakers to change their minds. The portal reported, citing one of the sources, that in early August this year, senators from both parties – Democrats and Republicans – organized a meeting with Sullivan. The multi-party delegation then received a message: the administration must change its position now, before it is too late.

His argument was similar to one that had been presented many times before, including by Ukrainians – The United States should lift all restrictions because if it doesn’t and Ukraine loses, the Joe Biden administration will be remembered for not doing enough when it could have..

The politician writes that This approach has upset senior White House officialsThey argue that the United States has done more for Ukraine than any other country and that it should not risk its national security for Kiev.

Will Americans finally lift the latest restrictions? That is unknown, but According to a senior Ukrainian adviser quoted by Politico, “there are certain reasons for this”.

There are some signs that Biden may want to do something big in the Ukraine context. He may lift some restrictions – before the election, now that he is not a candidate. – said the Ukrainian politician. There’s no guarantee, but we hear he’s thinking about it. – he added.



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