Putin has previously stressed that he will only negotiate if Kiev gives up four partially occupied regions that Moscow annexed in September 2022. These conditions are unacceptable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Shoigu’s statement came a day after Austria joined countries offering to act as mediators to end the war.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations: Austria ready to help
— As far as potential mediators are concerned, the country must secure suitable venues for peace talkshave strong logistics, be politically acceptable to both sides and have powerful diplomatic services,” Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at the London School of Economics’ think tank LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek.
To this end, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, in a post on X, formerly Twitter, stated that Vienna could “support a just and lasting peace based on international law and serve as a venue for negotiations.” Nehammer added that his government noted “Putin’s openness to peace talks with Ukraine” and had already called for de-escalation and peace talks.
“Austria can host the talks, especially since Vienna is the capital of the UN, but it cannot shape them in any meaningful way,” said Peter Rough, director of the Center for Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.
However, he added, “it’s very small and doesn’t have much to offer.”
“Any statements coming from Austria now are made in the context of the federal elections that will take place at the end of the month,” he said. — The FPÖ (Austrian Freedom Party – editor’s note) is leading in the polls and is very critical of Ukraine, which explains some of the maneuvers.
Hungarian Prime Minister’s “Peace Mission”
As a critic of continued Western military aid to Ukraine and Putin’s closest ally in the European Union, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has positioned himself as someone who can bring an end to hostilities.
On his first trip to Kiev in over a decade Orbán held talks with Zelensky on July 2, when Zelensky said he asked the Ukrainian president consider a ceasefire ahead of an international summit that Kiev hopes to hold later this year. On July 5, Orbán met with Putin in Moscow and three days later he spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
On Monday, the Hungarian leader spoke about his so-called “peacekeeping mission” to Ukraine and hinted at a breakthrough in the form of a possible “spectacular” appearance in September, according to Hungarian news website ATV.
However, Rough sees Orbán’s statements as political initiatives aimed at scoring points.
“These are not peace proposals that foresee an end to the fighting,” he said. “Moreover, the hostility between Budapest and Kiev makes Hungary unthinkable as a mediator in the talks.”
Team Putin? Brazil, China, India
During the Eastern Economic Forum, Putin referred to the other three countries that make up the BRICS acronym as possible intermediaries to end the war he started.
— People’s Republic of China, Brazil, India. I am in contact with my partners, Putin said. — We trust each other.
Vuksanovic, however, said China, along with Hungary, would be immediately rejected as potential mediators because they were too close to Russia.
“Furthermore, the US will not allow China to be the peacemaker,” he added.
During a visit to Ukraine in August, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Zelensky he was willing to play a personal role in promoting peace, but that both sides would have to “look for ways out of this crisis.”
But last month, Zelensky criticized Modi for hugging Putin during a trip to Moscow on the day of deadly Russian attacks, including one on Kiev’s largest children’s hospital.
— India has the advantage of good relations with Russia, and Modi made a good visit to Ukraine, but it is not clear whether India wants that role and whether others will accept it, Vuksanovic said.
— There is still speculation that Russia, Ukraine and the US will not decide to talk. For now, there is no indication that any of the three parties are interested in such an initiative.
About that Rough believes that Ukraine, as a smaller party and defender of the conflict, needs security guarantees against a much larger and aggressor country for any ceasefire to hold.
“As a non-aligned country in South Asia, India will not offer such security guarantees,” he added. “No one believes that China will deter Russia on Ukraine’s behalf in the event of a new aggression.”
International negotiations expert Ursula F. Ott, a professor of international business at Nottingham Trent University in England, believes China will pursue a long negotiation horizon.
“The aversion to losing face will lead to a more consensus-oriented approach,” she told Newsweek. “Russian negotiating behavior will be more direct, and with it the difficulty of dealing with Russian rejection of offers will be more complex. Conflict avoidance is strong on the Chinese side.”
Türkiye wants to be close to Russia and Ukraine
Turkey’s move away from NATO towards Russia and China has been criticized, and ties between Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have come under scrutiny.
Last week, Ankara said it would pursue membership of BRICS, the next step after its interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by Beijing and Moscow.
On the sidelines of the SCO, Erdogan said Ankara could be a go-between in the war in Ukraine, although a Kremlin spokesman dismissed this claim.
Turkey, however, helped broker a deal that later collapsed, but for a time ensured the safe transport of grain from a Ukrainian port on the Black Sea. Turkey did not impose sanctions on Russia, but it did deliver weapons such as Bayraktar TB2 attack drones to Kiev.
“Perhaps Turkey could host the talks, as it did with the grain initiative and the prisoner swap,” Rough said. “But for anything serious to succeed, it would also require a large part of the United States and Western Europe.”
At a peace summit in Lucerne, Switzerland, in June, to which Moscow was not invited, Kiev said it would not engage in direct negotiations with Russia. The prospect that a broad coalition could carry out Zelensky’s 10-point peace formula to end the war seems remote.
Retired U.S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Secretary of State General Colin Powell, told Newsweek that he does not believe Washington will allow any country to act as a peace broker before the US elections.
As the lead mediator, “the United States could admit Indonesia, New Zealand, or even Brazil or Mexico, but it would have a strong presence behind the scenes.” — After the elections, if Putin wanted, we could mediate with the help of, say, India, Turkey or Switzerland.
Martial law in Ukraine imposed by Zelensky due to the war prevented presidential elections from being held in March when his term officially ended, prompting Russia to question Zelensky’s legitimacy as head of state.
But Wilkerson, a senior contributor to the Eisenhower Media Network, said Putin would insist that the real mediators be himself or his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, “and the then-leader of Ukraine, duly elected in new elections.”
Text published in the American magazine “Newsweek”. Title, lead and subtitles by the editors of “Newsweek Polska”.
