Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his independent presidential campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump at a rally in Arizona on Friday. Trump gave him a dramatic welcome with pyrotechnics and the walking song “My Hero.”
Democrats, who spent more than a year and millions of dollars arguing that the presence of a conspiratorial scion of one of the most prominent families in the American establishment was a direct threat to their electoral hopes, now argue that Trump’s campaign song is failing to be prophetic.
But with Vice President Kamala Harris leading the ticket and Kennedy’s numbers exploding with Democratic-leaning voters, it’s not clear that their efforts won’t end up helping Trump in an election likely to come down by a few thousand votes. of the states.
Kennedy told right-wing radio host Glenn Beck on Monday that his internal polls showed a large majority of his supporters would vote for Trump if he were not in the race. Kennedy dropped out of the race to avoid ruining Trump’s bid against Harris, he told Beck.
“The odds were that my presence in the race would get Vice President Harris elected,” Kennedy said.
There is evidence in public national polling to support Kennedy’s claims. If forced to choose between Harris and Trump, 48 percent of Kennedy voters would support Trump, while Harris’ 23 percent and 29 percent “don’t know” New York Times/Siena College poll was carried out at the end of July. The same poll showed Harris trailing Trump in the opposite race, but in a tie when Kennedy and three other third-party candidates were entered into the race.
Democratic operatives, however, argued that Kennedy’s impact would be minimal.
“Here’s What RFK Jr.’s Endorsement for Donald Trump Would Change: Nothing,” Democratic National Committee wrote in the memo Friday. – RFK Jr.’s approval rating was once around 15% – now less than 5% – and he has no chance of bringing Trump any electoral benefit.
Of course, Democrats didn’t always treat Kennedy as if he had marginal influence. The DNC created an opposition research and media unit to fight all third-party candidates, but focused much of its firepower on Kennedy.
This outfit and other Democratic initiatives likely played a behind-the-scenes role in the constant stream of embarrassing stories about Kennedy. worm he says ate part of his brain for a story where he left a dead bear cub In Manhattan’s Central Park, posed to make it look like a hit-and-run bike accident.
Meanwhile, a separate Democratic super PAC denied Kennedy access to the ballot in critical states around the country, seizing on Kennedy’s claims that his primary residence is in New York Instead of California. (Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, also lives in California. Thanks to an obscure provision in the US Constitution, having two candidates from California would have made it difficult for them both to run without losing California voters.)
This effort to get Kennedy off the ballot was particularly fruitful in Pennsylvania, the state most likely to give the 270th electoral vote to either candidate to win the presidential election.
Last Tuesday, Kennedy showed up late heard about his eligibility to vote in the Keystone state, prompting a reprimand from the judge and making his disqualification likely. (Monday, after suspending his campaign, Kennedy withdrew his application for access to ballots.)
Although Trump had disparaged Kennedy a “radical left” supporter “ridiculous Open Borders and green new scam” the former environmental activist’s appeal to conservatives has long been apparent. He railed against the “deep state” and the dangers of the COVID-19 vaccine, opposed more U.S. aid to Ukraine, and took a conservative stance on border security and gun control.
Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist in Wisconsin, argued that Kennedy’s numbers collapsed with or without a nudge from national Democrats shortly after Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in late July. That’s because so much of Kennedy’s appeal was to voters known as “double haters.” They were disaffected, often less politically active voters who were fed up with both Trump and Biden and were desperate for an alternative.
Harris’ replacement of Biden allowed many of Kennedy’s more liberal supporters — young, Latino and black voters — to return to the Democratic fold, according to Zepeck.
“When that underlying premise wasn’t a choice, what the hell was the rationale for the Kennedy campaign anyway? There was none, Zepecki said. “That’s why these numbers went south.”
The numbers we’re talking about are really, really small compared to the wider electorate and very difficult to parse.Matt Bennett, Executive Vice President, Third Way
Ian Russell, former political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had a similar analysis of the collapse of the “twin haters” coalition.
“I just don’t think having him on the ballot would have made much of a difference one way or the other,” said Russell, who advises federal candidates in battleground states and districts.
“It has to be argued that it would be slightly better to get him on the ticket,” he added. “But I don’t think it’s as simple as taking his camp’s 4 percent and transferring it to Trump’s share of the vote.”
But considering the 2016 and 2020 elections were decided by 80,000 and 44,000 votes, respectively, the Trump campaign is taking all the help it can get. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote in a memo Friday that the net benefit of Kennedy’s resignation will cause Trump to exceed Biden’s 2020 margins in states like Arizona and Georgia.
“This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple,” Fabrizio wrote.
With Kennedy now drawing primarily from anti-establishment conservatives rather than disgruntled Democrats, would Harris have been better off if the Democrats had decided not to work as hard to destroy him?
“I don’t think so. We’ll never really know,” said Matt Bennett, vice chairman of the moderate Democratic group Third Way, which has previously partnered with the liberal group MoveO to fight a potential third-party candidate backed by No Labels. “The numbers we’re talking about are really, really small compared to the wider electorate, and they’re very difficult to parse.”
Even public voting showed that Kennedy supporters had less traditional voting patterns and a clearer record of participation. More than a third (34%) of those who supported him in a Times/Siena poll in late July said they had not voted in the 2020 presidential election.
Brody Lineaweaver, a New York University student who had been doing student organizing for the campaign since April, told HuffPost he feels “betrayed” by Kennedy’s decision. Lineaweaver, a self-described progressive who joined Kennedy’s campaign to challenge the two-party system, estimated that most of Kennedy’s support came from anti-establishment voters like him, and that those voters are more likely to stay home now than vote for Trump.
A smaller class of “Kennedy loyalists” who are more wedded to his anti-vaccine message “seem to be following Kennedy more into the Trump empire,” Lineaweaver said. Lineaweaver, who is registered to vote in Colorado, where she grew up and her parents live, plans to write to left-leaning author Marianne Williamson or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
In fact, some Democrats see Kennedy potentially costing Trump votes in the middle of the political spectrum due to his conspiracy theories, anti-vaccine worldview and history of strange and repulsive behavior.
“What’s really important here is that Kennedy probably isn’t going to bring a lot of voters with him, but by adding his vote to the Trump campaign … it’s really going to hurt Trump’s ability to attract those voters who are still in the game,” he said. . “Bringing Bobby Kennedy in at this point really doesn’t help ‘normal’ voters who just want to trust that Trump isn’t crazy.”
Other Democrats argue that their strategy to attack Kennedy could never be based on his standing in the polls, given how much it changed from day to day.
“We always thought the polls would fluctuate all the time, and our goal was to educate voters and make sure he followed the rules,” said Matt Corridoni, spokesman for the Democratic National Committee’s anti-third-party initiative. “We always knew this was going to be a tight race and we couldn’t leave him unattended.”
Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump speaks to both Kennedys and According to Corridon, Trump’s weakness as a candidate.
“This is not a decision that either campaign is making from a position of strength,” Corridoni said. “Kennedy waited until he was at his absolute rock bottom and he really didn’t have the people to bring with him, and Trump is so desperate for any kind of bump right now that he’s willing to take whatever RFK Jr. comes with.”