Since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential campaign three weeks ago, polls and campaign finance data have shown how the race has changed. He has come from behind to build a small lead over former President Donald Trump in national polls and in several swing states, raising far more money than he did last month.
Now, new voter registration data in two swing states adds to the evidence that Harris’ candidacy has energized potential Democratic voters.
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For nearly the entire year, more people registered as Republicans than Democrats when registering to vote in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, two battleground states that use party registration and regularly release that information.
There was a big spike in GOP registration in both states the week of July 14 during the Republican National Convention, days after Trump survived an assassination attempt. In Pennsylvania, more voters Registered Republican than in any week since 2020.
But the following Sunday, President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. The following week, Democratic registrations increased. For the first time this year, weekly Democratic registrations exceeded Republican registrations in North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, it was the largest Democratic margin in new registrations since the end of 2023.
Republican registrations in both states remained high, perhaps reflecting continued goodwill toward Trump. But that advantage was wiped out by Democratic victories.
In both states, the Democratic margin has since faded, though not completely.
It’s a small data point – a few thousand voters for each party each week. The views of recently registered voters also do not necessarily reflect the general preferences of voters. And a significant number of new voters in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania did not register with a party, so their vote in November may be harder to predict.
But there are some positive signs for Democrats even among independent voters. In North Carolina, unaffiliated youth and female voter registrations increased in the week after Biden’s announcement. (In swing state polls, Harris has a significant lead among women and voters under 30.)
For much of this year in North Carolina, women made up about 50 percent of new independent registrants. The share rose to 55 percent immediately after Biden’s fall. The share of registered people under the age of 30 rose to 48 percent this week, while it was around 43 percent in the previous weeks.
First-time registrants are typically younger and lean to the left, meaning Democrats have historically enjoyed a lead in registering new voters. But since 2020, Republicans have done unusually well in registration across the country, according to data from nonpartisan voter data provider L2.
The share of new voters registering with the Democratic Party has declined in recent years in other states, such as Florida. And even in states where Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans in new registrations, such as New York and Maryland, the percentage of voters registered as Democrats has fallen.
Democratic wins in Pennsylvania and North Carolina may or may not last. But they are a bright spot for a party that has thrived on the exodus of new voters.
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