Recently, the authorities detained Ryszard Czarnecki, a former PiS MEP who recently made headlines for information about record-breaking kilometres that he allegedly extorted from the European Parliament. Czarnecki was detained not because of the mileage, but because of his links to the Collegium Humanum. Also on Wednesday, Gazeta Wyborcza, citing its “unofficial findings”, reported that the Zielona Góra prosecutor’s office will soon submit a request to the Sejm to waive the immunity of MP Łukasz Mejza, citing irregularities in the politician’s asset declarations.
Dangerous dynamics
The atmosphere around PiS is clearly getting denser, and not only in the political dimension. Some once influential party politicians may even fear for their freedom. All this creates an extremely dangerous political dynamic for PiS.
Firstly, such an accumulation of corruption cases around the party could perpetuate for a long time the belief that PiS is an exceptionally corrupt formation by the standards of Polish politics, which uses its power to do shady, if not downright dirty, deals. One could try to defend Kamiński and Wąsik by presenting them as officials who, even if they violated some regulations, did so in good faith, fighting corruption. In the case of K., a similar defense is much more difficult, and in the case of Czarnecki it is completely impossible.
And PiS has always been very afraid of corruption allegations. Since its inception, the party has built its identity on the image of a formation that is morally better than other political forces, in which even if there are corrupt “black sheep”, they are treated without mercy. The 2015-23 period seriously damaged this image, but the current allegations by the prosecutor’s office could destroy it completely, at least outside the party’s most loyal voters. And since PiS is no longer in power and is unable to launch any new transfers, the rationalization “they can steal, but they share” does not really work.
Secondly, allegations against the party’s leading politicians and their closest associates and the loss of funding could cause deep relaxation, demoralization and even panic in PiS. And in the panic, politicians and former top officials could start revealing information that could seriously damage the party – not only in the political dimension, but also in the legal dimension.
Some groups of PiS politicians may also decide that a cash-strapped party, whose politicians are facing legal charges, is no longer a good place for their political career and that it is worth starting to look for new venues. So far, similar calculations have been blocked by the fact that PiS has subsidy money and the resulting advantage over all alternative right-wing projects – as Zbigniew Ziobro and his Solidarna Polska have learned painfully. However, if PiS loses not only part of its campaign reimbursement but also most of its subsidy funds, the playing field on the right of the governing coalition will become very even.
PiS returns to full opposition
Kaczyński is probably aware of this, hence the clear direction of PiS towards closing ranks, consolidating and fueling conflict with the entire world, especially with the majority in power.
Although PiS does not defend Michał K. (except for the Morawiecki faction), as Kamiński and Wąsik were defended, and the party makes it quite clear that it has no intention of dying for Czarnecki, its message has remained unchanged since the changes in the TVP at the end of the year: in Poland we are dealing with the dictatorship of Tusk and the “Bodnarists” and violations of the constitutional order. Moreover, as PiS rhetoric shows, Tusk seeks to “pacify” the opposition in order to subordinate Poland to Berlin and even – in accordance with the wishes of the German capital – to lead to the liquidation of the Polish state through the reform of the EU treaties.
Such a message – apart from the substantive assessment of its content – is rational insofar as it mobilises a strong electorate, clearly marks the lines of dispute and closes the ranks of activists. The problem is that, by positioning itself in this way, PiS pushes itself to the margins and closes itself off from winning over a more moderate electorate. Today, PiS is so busy trying to completely delegitimise PO and Tusk that it completely neglects the role of the normal opposition, pointing fingers at the government for its failures and expressing the feelings of social groups disappointed with the government’s policy.
PiS has already tried the tactic of total opposition once, in the years 2010-14, between the Smolensk catastrophe and the local government elections in the autumn of 2014, which Kaczyński said without any evidence were “rigged”. As long as PiS used this tactic, it was condemned to the role of eternal opposition, and it only emerged from it when, in 2015, together with Andrzej Duda’s first presidential campaign, it made a clear and, for many commentators, surprising turn to the centre.
Kaczyński has no self-control
There is no indication that PiS will be able to pull off such a turnaround before next year’s presidential election. One might also wonder whether the captain of the PiS ship has any control over the helm, because Kaczyński’s recent behavior could raise serious questions.
This was best seen on September 10, during the monthly anniversary of Smolensk. Kaczyński not only made a radical speech invoking the assassination theory, but also engaged in completely senseless fights with members of the Opposition Flying Brigade, who traditionally demonstrate on the day of the month. In the recordings of the incident, Kaczyński behaves aggressively, during the confrontation he punched a Brigade activist twice.
As Jacek Gądek wrote, the plan was different: PiS would be the victim of the Brigade’s sometimes aggressive actions and thus arouse public sympathy. The opposite happened.
At the same time, the media reported on Kaczyński’s statement, who, when asked about the British court decisions in the case of the former head of the RARS, accused the British courts of being partisan in nature and spoke of the need for their reform. This is quite comical in a situation where the PiS leader has no cards in his hand to reform the courts in Poland.
Kaczyński clearly also has problems choosing a presidential candidate from the party, public opinion may soon conclude that PiS simply has no one good. If all these problems are combined with the loss of the presidential election, PiS will find itself in very serious trouble. So big that it may not be able to take advantage of the problems of the government majority for a long time – internal disputes, the inability to implement several important promises or a visible decline in the government’s ratings.
