Astronomers have long predicted a cosmic collision between the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxy. This event, predicted to occur within the next 5 billion years, was considered an inevitable galactic merger. However, a recent simulation suggests that the probability of this collision occurring within the next 10 billion years may be lower than previously thought. According to a new study led by Till Sawala from the University of Helsinki, the probability of the Milky Way colliding with the Andromeda galaxy may be as low as 50%.
Change in predictions
Previous studies based on Andromeda’s motion and the Milky Way’s trajectory had certainly predicted a head-on collision. But the latest study, which takes into account data from the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes, shows that the gravitational influence of smaller nearby galaxies could significantly change that prediction. These smaller galaxies could potentially change the direction of the Milky Way’s encounter with Andromeda, making the collision scenario less likely. As a result, the notion of an impending galactic merger is now considered less definitive.
Insight into the simulation
The new simulations included various cosmic factors, such as the influence of the Triangulum Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud. The results revealed that while the merger scenario still has a 50% chance, it is not certain. The presence of these additional galaxies could increase or decrease the probability of a collision, depending on their gravitational influence on the Milky Way-Andromeda system.
Possible outcomes
If the collision doesn’t happen, the galaxies could pass each other by a safe distance. Even if they did, the effects on our solar system would likely be minimal. The merger would primarily affect the outer regions of both galaxies, potentially disrupting some star systems but leaving the core regions relatively unaffected.
Future Research
Upcoming data from the Gaia mission, which aims to provide a detailed map of the Milky Way, could help refine these predictions. With more precise measurements, astronomers could better understand the factors that influence the interaction of the Milky Way with Andromeda.
In summary, although a potential collision is still possible, the latest findings indicate that such a scenario is less certain than previously thought.
