Mobilization without missiles: New war scenarios for the Russian Federation

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Mobilization without missiles: New war scenarios for the Russian Federation
Mobilization without missiles: New war scenarios for the Russian Federation

Photo: Fake Images

Is Russia facing a new wave of mobilization?

The Russian Defense Ministry is insisting on a new mobilization to attract additional troops and compensate for Russian losses on the Ukrainian front.

Russia may announce a new mobilization due to the huge losses on the front. But it will be much more difficult for the occupiers to compensate for the loss of missiles and ammunition following a Ukrainian drone attack on a military depot in Toropets, in the Tver region.


Two scenarios

Forbes writes that the most optimistic scenario for the Russian Federation is that there are only a few ballistic missiles in Toropets. The aggressor country can simply replace the lost weapons with the first batch of missiles from Iran.

At the same time, the worst-case scenario for Russia is that it loses much of its best ammunition, which it uses to attack Ukraine.

Forbes notes that the attack on the Toropets warehouses could be a “turning point” for Ukraine. For several months, kyiv has been asking its European and American partners for permission to use long-range weapons against military targets in Russia, in particular ammunition depots.

However, the West has consistently refused to allow such a move, even as the number of civilian casualties from Russian attacks continues to rise.

The report suggests that frustrated Ukrainians have doubled production of their own weapons so they can attack targets on Russian territory without asking anyone’s permission.

“By blowing up the Toropets arsenal, this homemade weapon may have dealt the biggest blow yet and potentially saved dozens of Ukrainian lives by preventing future Russian attacks,” the journalists noted.


war of exhaustion

The Wall Street Journal reports that several months before his inauguration, Vladimir Putin met with representatives of the Defense Ministry, who insisted on a new mobilization to attract additional troops and compensate for Russian losses on the front in Ukraine.

The publication’s source said the dictator rejected the idea, saying he wanted to use only those who voluntarily sign military contracts.

However, pressure for renewed mobilization is coming as Russian losses in the war in Ukraine have reached around one million.

The author of the post notes that more than a month has passed since the invasion of the Kursk region by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, “and Moscow has still not organized a major counteroffensive to push back Ukrainian troops.”

According to the source of the publication, more and more people are talking about the inevitability of the mobilization.

“The weakness of Russian troops became painfully apparent during the Russian offensive earlier this year against Kharkov, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Russian troops advanced, but the offensive, which began in May and continued throughout the summer, inflicted heavy losses and was halted by the Ukrainians,” the WSJ writes.

At a meeting with Putin earlier this year, defense officials said he should use his inauguration and growing political support to make the case for mobilization. But Putin refused, because he was well aware of the unrest that followed the 2022 mobilization.

The Russian Federation also fears that mobilization will upset the delicate balance in society’s perception of war.

“Tying more Russians to the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine could have dangerous political consequences for Putin,” the author of the post stresses.

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