Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joined David Lin for a discussion on Bitcoin. Mike said that Bitcoin has led the risk assets in the current financial crisis and with quantitative easing, helping to drive markets to new highs earlier this year. He suggests that Bitcoin could also lead the market downturn as it appears to be anticipating a bottom of volatility in the stock market.
He said the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which spiked during major financial events, is now falling, indicating Bitcoin’s waning momentum. He also pointed out that Bitcoin rallied earlier this year on major events like the anticipated ETF launch, but has since underperformed gold and other assets, pointing to global economic challenges.
Mike said: “The fact is this: the fastest horse in the race, as some people call it, potentially suggests the race is over.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Recent Market Behavior:
Bitcoin’s Deviation from Traditional Stocks: Mike said that Bitcoin has recently shown some differences in its performance compared to traditional stock indices. From June to July and continuing into August, while Bitcoin recovered, it did so more slowly than the NASDAQ, which recovered from its early August lows. This raises questions about how Bitcoin’s relationship with various stock indices might change.
The Impact of Bitcoin ETFs and Resistance Levels: The launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January has had an impact on the market, he said. Since the launch of these ETFs, the average price of Bitcoin has been around $60,000, which has become a difficult barrier to break. As a result, many investors who bought Bitcoin through ETFs are now seeing the value of their investments fall below what they paid for them.
Broader economic factors: Looking beyond Bitcoin, there are broader economic signals to consider. The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has begun to rise, indicating that uncertainty in the market is increasing. Additionally, the yield curve is showing signs that a recession may be on the way. The Federal Reserve may be considering cutting interest rates as unemployment rises, which currently stands at 4.3% and is expected to reach 5% next year. These factors are contributing to the overall uncertainty in the market.