Problems with the lack of personnel and equipment are emerging again. Kiev waited too long to introduce legal changes that would allow an increase in the scale of mobilization, and now it will have to wait at least until late autumn, when soldiers will be trained to the appropriate level. As the practice of war has shown, it is better to wait than to waste soldiers senselessly, as is the case with the Russians.
A bag about the Sejm
The Sejm River divides the Kursk Oblast into two parts – northern and southern. After the destruction of three permanent bridges connecting the two banks, the southern one was cut off. Approximately 2 to 3 thousand people are trapped in the sack, which is bounded by the river in the north, the border with Ukraine in the west and south, and by Ukrainian troops who occupied Suja in the east. Russian soldiers.
Putin’s supporters quickly tried to support the troops fighting there by crossing a pontoon bridge. However, it did not last long – it fell victim to HIMARS. Currently, Ukrainians completely control the airspace of the operational region and closely monitor the actions of the Russians. As soon as engineering vehicles began to appear at one of the convenient crossing points, the operators of unmanned aerial vehicles opened fire on them with rocket artillery. This neutralized all attempts to use cluster munitions.
So the Russians are transferring supplies by boat and evacuating the wounded in the other direction. There is no room for other soldiers, and the Ukrainians are advancing about 1.5 km every day, tightening their grip on the situation. It would be a tragedy if so many Russians were captured by the Kremlin. Especially since the mothers of the recruits are already rebelling.
The first protests
At the beginning of the war, Putin promised that conscripts would not go to the front in Ukraine. Now the situation is a little different, because we have to defend our own territory, so no one makes such statements anymore. However, mothers have returned to the streets.
No information has yet appeared in the Kremlin media, but reports of protests in Western cities and districts of the Caucasus are already appearing on social media. On a small scale for now. The protests are mainly related to the killing or capture of conscripts who were drafted into the army in the fall of last year and in the spring draft this year.
The problem is often the lack of information about children who have disappeared or been captured. The authorities have restricted the possibility of publishing obituaries in the local press. They only appear on social networks. Therefore, the authorities quickly blocked access to the V Kontakte social network in the Kursk region and neighboring regions.
After all, as propaganda repeats, quoting the deputy head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the commander of the Akhmat special unit, Major General Apta Alaudinov: – The Ukrainian Armed Forces were stopped throughout the Kursk region and the main enemy assets were destroyed.
It can’t be bad if it’s so good. That’s why the Kremlin started to hush up the problem and blamed journalists and bloggers who “spread lies and manipulation, causing panic among civilians.” The problem is that while few people care about murdered criminals, homeless people or Caucasians, their mothers care about the young inhabitants of St. Petersburg. Almost a hundred mothers protested on Admiralty Square when they learned that 250 of this year’s conscripts had been sent from Leningrad Oblast to Kursk.
War mothers
Such protests will not bring about any change in Russia. There will be no collapse that would lead to a change of government or even withdrawal from the war. Putin has taken care of this meticulously. Immediately after the attack on Donbass and Crimea in 2014, there were also protests by local branches of the Union of Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia, an organization created in 1989 as part of a protest against the war in Afghanistan. At that time, the mass protests had a significant impact on the authorities’ position on the continuation of hostilities.
Now the Committee does not have such powers. In August 2014, the St. Petersburg Committee was included in the list of terrorist organizations supported by foreign governments. It was a clear signal for us to stay out of the spotlight, not to get involved in politics and to focus on sending Christmas packages to soldiers in the green garrisons.
The head of the St. Petersburg branch, Ella Polyakova, has stopped publicly engaging in politics and, as a reward, has become a military expert in the Presidential Council of the Russian Federation. The head of the Union, Valentina Melnikova, was recently a member of the public council of the Russian Defense Ministry, where she dealt with… military conscription.
Therefore, there is no one to organize mass protests at this time, and any attempts at popular action are quickly neutralized by the authorities.
Currency of exchange
If Kiev somehow expected that the attack on the Kursk Oblast would shock the citizens of the Federation, it made a mistake. The seismographs barely moved. The blame fell on journalists and local civil and military authorities. No ripples were felt in the Kremlin. However, dozens of soldiers who are taken prisoner every day became a problem.
Their capture and occupation of over a thousand square kilometers of Russian territory is an excellent bargaining chip that President Volodymyr Zelensky can use during the autumn peace talks. Although the Kremlin assured a month ago that it had no intention of participating in them, there are now increasing voices that Putin may change his mind. If this was the aim of the Ukrainian operation, it was fulfilled to the letter. Especially since after driving the Russians out of the Sejm, the Ukrainians will be able to strengthen themselves and wait in peace. Once driven across the river, the Russians will never return to their left bank. Unless they make an exchange.
