Democrats are fending off a Republican attack aimed at overturning their slim majority in the Senate.
Taking control of the upper house of the U.S. Congress could represent the GOP’s best chance to succeed in the November election, analysts say, surpassing their chances of retaking the White House or even retaining control of the House of Representatives.
But buoyed by Kamala Harris’ campaign, Democrats remain competitive.
What is the current composition of the Senate?
Democrats currently hold 48 seats in the 100-member chamber, as well as the support of three independent senators who sit in the party’s caucus and support it in key votes. Republicans hold 49 seats, meaning they only need to pick up two in November — when a third of the seats are up for grabs — to regain control.
How likely are Republicans to take over?
On the face of it, the GOP has the upper hand. The retirement of Joe Manchin, a centrist Democrat from West Virginia with a record in Republican-favored positions, will almost certainly lead to a GOP victory in a state that has become a party stronghold.
If Donald Trump were to retake the White House, winning West Virginia alone would be enough to effectively hand the Senate to the Republicans, and the vice president would have the deciding vote under the U.S. Constitution in a 50-50 scenario.
Related: Republicans are hoping for a Senate majority after a strong West Virginia primary
Where are sitting Democrats most vulnerable?
Two Democratic incumbent senators in core GOP states are seen as particularly vulnerable; Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. The latter is a one-time electoral battleground that Trump won in the last election and is now considered solid Republican territory.
In increasingly conservative states, both Tester and Brown have sought to remain competitive by emphasizing their independence from the more liberal national party organization. Both stayed away from last month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago to focus on wooing independents and swing voters, whose support is seen as essential to keeping their seats. The Cook Political Report has called both races a toss-up.
Montana: John Tester v Tim Sheehy
Tester, who has been in office since 2006, is seeking a fourth term in a state Trump won by 16 points four years ago over Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and businessman with the former president’s backing.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown v. Bernie Moreno
Brown has been in the Senate as long as Tester and is also seeking his fourth term. His opponent, Bernie Moreno, is another Trump-backed candidate who was not the choice of the Ohio Republican Party.
Key presidential battleground states where Republicans hope to win
Nevada: Jacky Rosen v Sam Brown
Jacky Rosen, a first-term senator elected in 2018, faces a challenge from Sam Brown, a Republican with an upbeat story but a lackluster political resume. Brown, a graduate of the West Point Military Academy and a veteran of the long US-led military effort in Afghanistan, narrowly survived a roadside bomb attack in Kandahar that left him permanently scarred. Like Tester and Brown, Rosen decided to skip the recent Democratic convention to focus on his Senate defense.
The Cook report classifies the race as leaning Democratic.
Related: The Wisconsin race that could topple the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin v Eric Hovde
Two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin faces Eric Hovde, a wealthy GOP banker and businessman who is financing his own campaign. But Democrats have questioned his local bonafide views, which have emphasized his connections to Southern California.
The Cook Report also evaluates the race on the Democrats’ page.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey year David McCormick
Three-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey faces David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds.
Casey is favored to hang onto his seat, in part due to strong local name recognition. His opponent has already suffered a defeat in a Pennsylvania Senate race, narrowly losing the 2022 Republican state primary to Mehmet Oz, who then lost to Democrat John Fetterman in an election for a seat left vacant by GOP retirements. incumbent Pat Toomey, one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol in his second impeachment trial.
The Cook report classifies it as leaning Democratic.
Arizona: Ruben Gallego v Karijärvi
The seat vacated by Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who left the party to retire as an independent, is now a key target for Kari Lake, a one-time television news anchor who has positioned herself as a vocal Trump supporter and supporter. the lie of the lie that the 2020 election was stolen. He repeated the tactic when he lost the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs. His opponent is Gallego, a Democratic member of the House of Representatives and a former Marine veteran who served in Iraq.
Cook’s report pegged the race as leaning Democratic.
Michigan: Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers
Here, Republicans are on the offensive to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is stepping down after 24 years. Trying to fill his shoes is Elissa Slotkin, currently a Democratic member of the House of Representatives running against Mike Rogers, a mainstream Republican who once said his party needed to move beyond Trump before embracing him and deserves the former president’s endorsement.
Cook’s report sees the race as a toss-up.
Maryland: Angela Alsobrooks year Larry Hogan
Solidly Democratic Maryland, which includes the liberal suburbs of Washington, DC, is crucial to the party’s hopes of retaining a Senate majority.
Instead, it’s turning into a battle between Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks, one of Maryland’s biggest states, and the state’s former GOP governor, Larry Hogan. A recent American Association of Retired Persons poll put the pair at 46 percent — this despite Kamala Harris holding a nearly 20 percent lead in the presidential race. Part of the explanation is the moderate public profile of Hogan, a traditional Republican who has positioned himself as an anti-Trump Republican and has said he is not seeking the former president’s endorsement.
Indeed, spurred on by a recent poll, Hogan has now gone further, marketing himself in a new ad as one of the few Republicans who has never “gived in” to Trump, praising his decision to send the Maryland National Guard to thwart the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.
As a result, the state, which Trump lost to Joe Biden by 33 points in 2020, is in the toss, according to Cook’s report.
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Possible dark horse races?
Florida: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Republican incumbent Rick Scott.
Texas: Colin Allred, another Democrat, is trying to unseat embattled incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.
Cook’s report rates both races as likely Republican.
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