Photo: Social networks (illustrative photo)
Mobilization in the Russian Federation remains unlikely
Putin did not use the entry of Ukrainian troops into the Kursk region as an opportunity to prepare Russian society for mobilization.
Mobilisation in Russia remains unlikely in the short to medium term as Russian dictator Vladimir Putin fears it poses a direct threat to the stability of his regime, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says.
ISW analysts assessed the message about the possibility of Russia announcing another wave of mobilization both before Putin’s inauguration and after the start of the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region in August 2024 and concluded that the so-called head of the Kremlin has not yet authorized such a mobilization.
It should be noted that the Russian opposition publication Meduza recently reported that sources close to the Russian government claimed that the Kremlin was considering the idea of a mobilization immediately after the Kursk operation. But the Russian government and businessmen linked to the Kremlin have opposed this line of thinking.
Moreover, Putin consistently noted throughout the entire operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region his commitment to recruiting volunteers, boasting about the number of recruits interested in fighting in Ukraine. Moreover, in response to the actions of the Ukrainian forces, the Russian dictator personally met with Russian volunteers.
As the ISW report states, Putin did not use the entry of Ukrainian troops into the Kursk region as an opportunity to prepare Russian society for mobilization in the short and medium term. Instead, he decided to form new irregulars and expand efforts to recruit Russian volunteers.
As ISW analysts note, the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense greatly shocked Russian society when they announced a partial mobilization at the end of September 2022. And Putin is now apparently seeking to prevent a negative reaction from society to a new wave of mobilization.
Let us recall that the State Duma rejected the bill on postponing the mobilization for parents with many children. One of the reasons for rejecting a postponement in Russia was the danger of a “reduction of the personnel reserve”.
Earlier, media outlets reported that the Russian Federation would be forced to announce another wave of protests before the end of 2024, even though their number is now greater than that of Ukraine.
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