Today, the retirement age for women in Poland is 60 and for men it is 65. As Antoni Kolek, a doctor of social sciences and chairman of the board of the Pensions Institute, points out, it is one of the lowest in the European Union. “Only Austrian women have such a low retirement age,” says Antoni Kolek.
– If we leave the retirement age in Poland that we have now, which was established in the 1950s and we returned to it in 2017,more and more people (two out of every three pensioners born since the 1980s) will receive minimum pensions – highlights Tomasz Lasocki, PhD in Law from the University of Warsaw.
Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Poland’s Minister of Finance and Regional Policy, admitted on the Polsat News program “Graffiti” that it is time for a serious debate on raising the retirement age. – I have a high opinion of Poles. Poles do not expect a policy of handing out sweets. They expect a serious conversation, the minister said.
Demographic crisis
Currently, the population of Poland is 37.59 million. The “Population forecasts for 2023-2060” published by the Central Statistical Office indicate a clear population decline by 2060. The main scenario predicts a decrease in Poland’s population to 30.4 million people, in alternative scenarios to 26.7 million in the low scenario and to 34.8 million in the high scenario.
In 2023, 272,000 children were born in Poland, which is the lowest number since the end of World War II. This is 30,000 fewer people than in 2022. Last year, 409,000 people died, which is 40,000 fewer than in 2022.
– Currently, less than 300,000 babies are born in Poland. children. Meanwhile, in the years 1982-84, more than 700,000 babies. children were born per year. When the peak of 1982-84 and the previous boom of the 1970s reach retirement age, we will have an avalanche of retirements – says Kamil Sobolewski, economist at Pracodowcy RP.
According to the economist’s forecast, this will happen around 2050 (with the retirement age slightly extended). There will be a very rapid increase in the number of retirees, with a very chimerical increase in the number of people of working age.
– Those born in 2024 will enter the labor market after 2040. There will be twice as many of these people as those who will retire. This will cause huge deficits in the pension system and pensions will be very low – the expert notes.
The serious demographic crisis also caught the attention of the Minister of Regional Policy. – The consequences for the pension system are as follows: 15 years ago, four people worked for every person of retirement age, now there are less than three,and by 2050 there will be less than two – said Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. – These are concrete data, because demographics are something that can be easily predicted, so we must accept it and start thinking about how to act now, and not when everything falls on us – added the minister.
She also commented on the government’s plans to raise the retirement age. – I am not saying that tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or next year there will be this reform. That will not be the case, but this is a big question mark, this is the conversation we need to have with the Poles, Pełczyńska-Nałęcz said.
What do the predictions mean? “Don’t speak out loud”
Economist Kamil Sobolewski is convinced that in the future average pensions will be much lower than today.
– Currently, the average salary in Poland is around PLN 8,000, and the salary of an “average” Pole, where half of the Poles earn more and half less, is around PLN 6,500. However, 25 percent of his last salary is the amount of pension he can expect, that is, PLN 1,600. Half of the Poles will receive even less. We don’t talk about it out loud, but our pensions will be halved – explains Kamil Sobolewski.
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