– “I want” is a good word, but I haven’t made a decision yet. I’ve said it many times – this is not some kind of flirting, no one in their right mind will make such a decision before November or December. Anything can still happen on this stage, including black swans and black horses. Decisions are made when you have cards on the table, and none of us have those cards today – says Szymon Hołownia, when asked about running for president.
– Are you sure he is still convinced to run? – asks one of Donald Tusk’s government ministers rhetorically. – I wouldn’t be surprised if a dance calls out: ‘maybe Władek after all’, ‘but not Szymon, you are more worthy’, ‘Władek, you are more experienced’. They know perfectly well what real chances Hołownia has at the moment.
The last test for Hołownia and his party was four years ago, when the current marshal obtained less than 14 percent in the first round. After that, his party never ran in elections again, and although the politicians of Poland 2050 like to repeat that they saved the PSL and are the strongest faction of the Third Way, there is no evidence for this thesis.
Moreover, the situation after four years looks completely different from the spring of 2020. Firstly, Hołownia is no longer a new face in Polish politics, he is part of the system and for some even “part of the system”. In the previous presidential race, he could have played the card of “independent arbitrator and mediator between the conflicting parties”. Now he is on one side – and whether he likes it or not – its leader is Donald Tusk. In the eyes of many voters, Hołownia is playing with Tusk, even if he is running against him.
Tusk’s Responsibility
– If Donald decided to run, and there is a trend in the party that wants him to, our coalition partners would probably be the happiest – one of the politicians in Tusk’s government tells us. – Firstly, he would take full responsibility for the result, secondly, they could breathe a sigh of relief and would not have to put forward their candidates, and thirdly, the transfer window for the post of prime minister would finally be open and they could start playing for real power.
For now, however, Tusk has no plans to run and the Civic Coalition’s most serious candidate is Rafał Trzaskowski. However, even the PO is not entirely convinced that Trzaskowski will win.
– Everything is at stake – say the PO politicians, stressing that, on the one hand, Trzaskowski’s leftism may be an advantage in the confrontation with the conservative PiS candidate, because it gives the opportunity to present two visions of Poland. On the other hand, it does not guarantee the votes of the PSL and the Confederation voters in the second round. For this reason, we also hear that it would be better if Hołownia resigned altogether – then we would win in the first round, because PiS would not get the Confederation votes and we would still get a significant part of the left’s votes, our interlocutors calculate.
A painful end for Hołownia?
Hołownia has been constantly announcing his participation in next year’s race. And politicians from Poland 2050 are publicly trying to position him as a joint candidate for the entire coalition.
– Trzaskowski, like the entire PO, has a lot of support and a negative electorate. Considering a common candidate cannot be based on the fact that Trzaskowski exists and that we have to support him. Talking about a common candidate makes sense if it is honest. All candidates should be equally important. It should be the most centrist candidate possible, and Marshal Hołownia fits this description perfectly, says Barbara Oliwiecka, MEP for Poland 2050, recently in conversations with the media.
However, Hołownia would certainly not be the candidate of the left, because dragging the abortion issue through the Sejm did not win him supporters from that side. Just like insisting on a referendum. And it does not matter that Poland 2050 voted in favor of the abortion decriminalization bill. In this case, in the eyes of both activists and supporters of the left, the Third Way is a whole, and not two parties that have less and less in common. If – purely hypothetically – Hołownia ran as the candidate of KO and Trzecia Droga, it could happen that the left candidate would benefit in the first round and none in the second.
– Hołownia should withdraw straight away, because if he gets a result similar to the Kosiniak-Kamysz result four years ago, it will be a very painful landing and the end not only of him, but probably also of his party – the coalition partners predict.
Where does this darkness come from? For four years, Hołownia’s party has been just that: Hołownia’s party – without structures and activists. It is based on a leader and a few names. Even the political stars who came to Poland 2050 in the previous term have faded. Hołownia was recently determined to hand the party over to someone else and focus exclusively on building himself and his presidential campaign. The leader’s name would disappear from the official name and the activists would elect a new president. This idea failed because the Speaker of the Sejm stopped pushing for change.
– The idea was that he would run as an unhindered politician, somewhat anti-party, because as party leader he could not play the role of an impartial mediator. But he probably understood that without a party and with the view that Czarzasty would immediately replace him, he would be left with nothing, Hołownia’s colleagues say.
The issue is difficult because despite the differences and despite the announced competition in the upcoming elections, the ruling coalition has one goal – to win the presidential election. It must – together or separately – choose a candidate who will definitively defeat PiS. There is no other way.
– We will take over the elections, we will take over Poland – one of the ministers tells us. – Everything will start to rot, it will be like now, when absolutely nothing can be done and our voters will not forgive us, they will say “you wasted your time” and there will be no good answer to that.
And without this, there will be no voter engagement and voting in 2027, because they cannot be convinced to revolt again. There are still good chances next year, because the “anti-PiS” sentiment among voters is still alive. But leaders must choose their candidate carefully, which means putting aside their own ambitions. Probably forever.
