In June 2020, Duda – at the end of the presidential campaign in Poland – met with Trump at the White House. But then it can be argued that Duda did not fly to Washington for electoral purposes, but to discuss matters of state importance.
It is different now. A meeting with Trump in September 2024, when the Republican will not hold any political office, will clearly be perceived as the Polish president’s involvement in the US elections.
Mainly because we are in the final stretch of the campaign and Pennsylvania will be a key state that could decide the outcome of the election. Pennsylvania has more than 13 million people, is the fifth most populous state and the largest of the so-called swing states – states that could vote for Biden or Trump this year. For both candidates, the path to a majority of the electoral college votes runs through Pennsylvania. That is why the recent televised debate between Harris and Trump took place in Pennsylvania.
According to some estimates, the state is home to around 800,000 Americans of Polish descent. During the aforementioned debate, Kamala Harris remembered them, asking Trump what he had to say to them about his policy towards Putin. Harris also appealed to Polish and Polish voters in one of her campaign ads. The narrator recounts how, during the Mongol invasion from the east in the 13th century, a voice was heard from Krakow calling for defense against the invaders – referring to the legend of the creation of the “Saint Mary’s bugle call” – and assures that Harris today hears a voice warning against the modern threat coming from the East, resonating in Poland and Ukraine. All of this constitutes a coherent message from the Democratic candidate addressed to the Polish community: vote for me, because only I can guarantee that the United States will fulfill its allied obligations to Poland and its neighbors – Trump will leave them at the mercy of Putin.
Trump’s meeting with Duda in Pennsylvania would be seen as a counter-narrative to the message Harris’s team has been sending to the Polish community. Especially since it will take place at a Marian shrine founded by a Polish Pauline monk, best known for his copy of the painting of Our Lady of Częstochowa. Trump could say to Polish-Americans: “Comrade Kamala is talking nonsense again, look how well I get along with the Polish president.”
Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine should really worry us
You can understand why Trump is seeking such a meeting. Although Poles of American descent tend to vote in Pennsylvania like other people of similar financial or educational backgrounds, and are not necessarily driven by the “Polish cause,” Trump will still campaign in Pennsylvania, the meeting with Duda will cost him nothing and will not take much time, and it could always bring him additional votes. And the fight in Pennsylvania could be decided by a very small margin.
However, it is difficult to understand why Andrzej Duda would have such a meeting. Firstly, the president must avoid behaviour that could expose him to accusations of interfering in another country’s campaign. Secondly, given the signals coming from the Trump camp regarding Ukraine, the Polish president really has no reason to support this particular candidate.
During the aforementioned debate with Harris, Trump failed to say – although he was asked twice – that he would like Ukraine to win this war. Trump has long said that if he became president he would quickly end the war in Ukraine, but he has never said how he actually intended to do so and what that would mean for Ukrainians and our region.
More details were provided in a recent interview with Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance. The current demarcation line between Russia and Ukraine would become a “demilitarized line,” with Ukraine “protecting its sovereignty” in exchange for a guarantee that it will never join NATO or similar institutions. This would be a disastrous plan for our region. It would effectively mean leaving the areas occupied by Russia under its control. Left out of alliances, Ukraine would have no real security guarantees, and the conflict with Russia would simply be frozen until it was convenient for Russia to unfreeze it.
Of course, Vance will not ultimately decide the Trump administration’s policy toward Ukraine. But the very fact that Trump chose Vance—known for his consistent skepticism toward U.S. aid to Ukraine—is indicative of the president’s thinking. Trump has always spoken with greater admiration for Putin than for Zelensky, and has always believed that the conflict with Russia unnecessarily distracts American attention and takes away resources that should be devoted to competing with China.
Trump’s second term, in the conditions of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression in Ukraine, will pose a great risk to our region. The Harris administration, which ensures the continuation of Biden’s policy of supporting Kiev, is a much safer choice for Poland. If the Polish president cannot support Kamala Harris in the campaign, he should not support Trump.
This is a likely scenario
Therefore, it is expected that the information about the Duda-Trump meeting in Pennsylvania will ultimately not be confirmed. At the same time, if this happens, no one who closely follows Duda’s presidency will be surprised.
Duda, despite all his conflicts with President Kaczyński, is a political and mental product of his upbringing. And he is so deeply involved in the global cultural war against the “liberal elites” that he has allied himself so strongly with the right-wing populist revolt that he is capable of allying himself with any force on the anti-liberal side. Regardless of how much the policies of the right-wing populists would be contrary to basic Polish interests. Proof of this is the fact that the PiS camp has not been able to break its alliance with Orbán, despite the Hungarian Prime Minister’s pro-Russian policies.
The Polish president probably still feels grateful to Trump for the frequency with which he met with him, for the way he treated him with seriousness and attention, which Duda could not count on in Poland and in Europe. However, a politician must also be able to control emotions of gratitude – if Andrzej Duda gives in to them now, he will make a serious mistake.
