WASHINGTON — An unprecedented summer has turned the presidential election on its head with two months to go before Election Day, and a dead heat between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump as both candidates prepare for a post-Labor Day final push. holiday weekend.
The race that slipped from President Joe Biden is competitive again after he stepped down on July 21 and handed the baton to his vice president, who has drawn support from key groups that had disaffected him, particularly young and black voters.
Harris, 59, has turned the issue of age from a potentially fatal liability to Democrats’ advantage against the 78-year-old Trump. The former president, who confidently ran against Biden, has at times seemed enraged by Harris, launching personal and racial attacks against the rival who would be the first woman and first Indian American to become president. He has wiped them away.
“It’s a toss-up race,” Republican strategist Brad Todd said, warning that the GOP’s fortunes are not as bright as they were when the Democratic nominee was the 81-year-old Biden.
Todd urged Trump to stay focused on defining Harris as a “far-left candidate” by highlighting the positions he has embraced during the 2020 campaign — health care, energy, immigration and more. Harris has since sought to pivot to the center, saying his “values haven’t changed” over the past five years.
“To win, Donald Trump has to hold him accountable for the things he said he believed in,” she said. “But so far he hasn’t shown much interest.”
The summer of 2024 has brought unprecedented events, including an unusually early debate that proved fatal to Biden’s already fading re-election hopes, an assassination attempt by Trump, and a GOP convention revealed as Trump’s winning party. Biden turned the race on its head by dropping out and shifting the charge to Harris, who quickly shut down the candidacy — and quickly rose to dead in the polls. The Democratic convention in late August revealed a jubilant and rejuvenated party just before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his independent bid and endorsed Trump. Harris and Trump are scheduled to hold their first one-on-one conversation next week on September 10.
“Basically a dogfight”
Despite the momentum, Democrats say the race is far from over.
“I still think it’s basically a dogfight,” said Bill Burton, a political consultant who worked on Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, praising Harris for a “perfect” campaign so far.
Burton said it’s hard to imagine such excitement among Democrats if Biden were still the nominee. “He’s peaked at just the right moment,” he said. “As long as he keeps the rudder steady, I think he’ll be fine.”
Harris leads Trump by 4 points in the USA Today/Suffolk poll and by 2 points in the Wall Street Journal poll. Recent polls of key states that Biden narrowly won in 2020 — including Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — show a tight race with a narrow Harris lead. In addition to being competitive in those “blue wall” states, Harris has put the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina that Biden broke away from back into play.
Harris campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote in a memo Sunday: “[M]ake no error: we go into the final leg of this race as clear underdogs. Donald Trump has a motivated base, more support and more popularity than he has ever had since 2020.
Burton said Harris still has work to do to bring home key constituencies, particularly black voters, as Trump seeks to woo younger black men.
“I think some of the white voter support” showing up in the polls today “is going to be a little shallow and he’s going to have to make up for that,” Burton said.
“Look at the black voters,” he said. “That’s where I think there’s the most opportunity and the most concern.”
Both candidates sought to reduce their vulnerabilities by reversing their unpopular positions from the past. Harris has rejected leftist ideas he supported in 2019, such as Medicare for All and decriminalizing immigration. While Trump boasts about his opposition to abortion, he is backing away from his support for federal abortion restrictions and suggesting he won’t try to repeal “Obamacare” after fighting to do so as president.
A unique dynamic in the battle for Congress
The tightening presidential race has narrowed the race for Congress with a unique dynamic: Senate majorities run through red states like Ohio and Montana, while House races run through blue states like California and New York.
In a tightly divided House, a few dozen battleground states are poised to decide which party rules. The playing field has narrowed dramatically recently due to partisan gerrymandering and regional polarization, with urban areas voting Democratic and rural areas voting Republican.
The “universal vote” — voters’ preferences for which party they want to control Congress — has improved slightly for Democrats since Biden’s fall, but remains tight. Democrats led by 1 point in the Wall Street Journal poll, 1 point in the Reuters poll and 2 points in the Economist poll — all within the margin of error.
The Senate map has given Republicans a golden opportunity to maintain control, even if Democrats have a strong year. Democrats currently hold 51 seats and have admitted they will lose West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin to retirement. That means Republicans can win the majority by defeating Democrats in one of the two red states where Trump has coasted to victory: Sen. Jon Tester of Montana and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
Most public polls show Tester trailing — unlike in 2018, when he led his GOP opponent and won — while Brown is narrowly ahead.
Todd, a GOP strategist, said 51 seats were “certain” and argued the party should aim for a larger majority, such as 53 or 54 seats.
“Jon Tester is literally as dead as the Thanksgiving turkey,” he said.
A national Democrat who works on Senate races disputed that view, saying, “This is a tight race that’s within the margin of error — it’s the kind of race that Tester always faces and knows how to win.”
Unlike in 2022, when Republicans talked about a red wave and a big majority that famously failed, some insiders say they’re happy with even a narrow majority this year.
“The goal is to flip the Senate,” said a GOP strategist who works on Senate races. “For that, Tim Sheehy [in Montana] is the most important man in the country with Bernie Moreno [in Ohio] also competing.”
There are five very competitive states where Democrats are also defending seats: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Polls show Democratic candidates have an advantage in all five, with Republicans admitting they are at a disadvantage.
“The growing view among Republican strategists is that Michigan is the best pickup in the country for purple states,” a GOP strategist said, referring to the seat vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.
Democrats see glimmers of hope in Florida and Texas, two red states where GOP Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz are the favorites to stick with, although some polls show their lead is narrow.
“If I were a Republican, I’d be very nervous about what we’re starting to see in some of the polls in Texas and Florida,” Burton said. Colin Allred of Texas and Debbie Mucarsel Powell of Florida “are running great campaigns … They may very well be on the defensive [and that] can prevent them from getting a majority,” he said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
