They, in turn, had to intensify their actions due to the continued withdrawal of Russian units from the front in Ukraine to protect the Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts and to drive the Ukrainians out of the Kursk Oblast. The Kremlin decided that regaining the lost lands was now important, but not so important as to weaken the front.
Russian regrouping
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General of the Army Alexander Syrski, justified the strike on the Russian oblast with Ukraine’s desire to “create a security zone that would lead to the cessation of shelling on the territory of the Russian Federation, the protection of civilian facilities in Sumy Oblast and the outpacing of the enemy.”
At the same time, he admitted that “one of the objectives of the offensive operation against Kursk was to draw off significant enemy forces from other directions, primarily from Pokrovsk and Kurakhiv.” If such were indeed the plans, they were only partially successful. Russian artillery stopped regular shelling of the border districts, but failed to reduce Russian pressure in the Donbass, despite a noticeable regrouping of troops. American analysts estimate that Russia needs to import at least 50,000 troops to drive Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region.
General Syrski reported that the Russians had already transferred about 30,000 soldiers to the Kursk region. Others are being transferred, but mainly from the Zaporozhye Oblast. Based on reconnaissance drone photos, the Ukrainians were able to identify some of the transferred units of the 810th Independent Marine Brigade, the 11th Mechanized Brigade and the 56th Independent Assault Regiment that had departed from Kherson; however, they did not in any way weaken the troops fighting in Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Kramatorsk.
The Russians are still attacking in these areas. Near Pokrovsk, they are carrying out 50 to 70 attacks every day, which is almost 40 percent of all combat contacts initiated by the Russians. Pokrovsk is still an extremely important target for them, although the Kremlin is slowly starting to play the game that Kiev has been playing for the past month. In addition, the social climate is slowly deteriorating.
Fear in society
Putin has no intention of giving up on Donbass, so conscripts are being sent to the attacked districts. Grigory Sverdlin, who is behind the Idite Liesom project, which helps Russians avoid military service, announced that since the start of the Ukrainian attack on Kursk, the number of applications submitted by young men who may be subject to conscription for compulsory military service has almost doubled.
It is true that Putin promised not to send conscripts to Ukraine and he kept his word. He was extremely open to complaints and requests. However, Kursk Oblast is not Ukraine and the autumn conscripts go there in large numbers. It is the conscripts who are taken prisoner by the dozens. They were surrounded and had the Kadyrovtsy behind them, who were ordered to hold the front and stop the retreating units. The Kremlin operates under anti-terrorism regulations and not under a state of war. Thanks to this, nothing prevents the authorities from sending poorly trained teenagers to the front. This has caused increasing indignation in Russia.
Idite Liesom volunteers noted that the current situation could be “described as panic, horror at the fact that they are preparing to send conscripts en masse” to the front. According to the law, conscripts who have completed four months of service and have completed the first stage of specialized training can be sent to the area covered by anti-terrorist activities, which means that soldiers called up in the spring conscription, which began in April, can go to the front. And these soldiers have already been captured by the Ukrainians.
The autumn conscription in the Russian Federation begins on October 1. Formally, those who will be appointed at that time cannot be sent anywhere before February. Human rights defenders stress, however, that this rule is being violated and there are many known cases of conscripts being sent to the front immediately after the conscription.
The dissatisfaction expressed on social media and the few protests that were quickly neutralized are not yet an earthquake that could shake the foundations of Russian power. The Kremlin has not even felt the public dissatisfaction. The effects may be felt in the long term. However, there is a long way to go. Are Ukrainians handing out cards? There is still a long way to go before the Ukrainians take the full initiative. If that is even possible. For now, they only have it in the Kursk region. In the Donbass, the initiative still belongs to the Russians and slowly, step by step, they are pushing the Ukrainians westward.
Will they be able to gain the upper hand? Much depends on what reserves they still have, whether other brigades are being trained and what conclusions have been drawn from the fighting so far. So far, there is no indication that they have the strength and capabilities to move even in weakened Zaporizhia. All the more so since the Russians have managed to significantly strengthen their positions in two years and are entrenched on the ground. Kiev missed an opportunity last summer and now it will be difficult to advance south.
The Ukrainians have also failed to reduce the scale of attacks in the Donbass, and their brigades are tired of the constant presence at the front. In this case, we can recall Zagłoba from Sienkiewicz, who described a similar situation as a dictatorship: “a Cossack captured Tatarzyn, and Tatarzyn is holding his head”. On the one hand, the Ukrainians are advancing on Russia, on the other, the Russians are advancing on Ukraine. Both sides are tired, exhausted and nervous. Ukraine still has to rely on the help of allies who periodically get irritated by Zelensky’s behavior, on the other hand, in Russia there is still no new broom effect and the production of weapons has not increased. This is evidenced by the scale of use of heavy equipment and, above all, by the frequency of air strikes in the remote interior of the Ukrainian front.
Just a year ago, the Russians could have been expected to launch 50 to 60 missiles every two to three weeks, limiting the scale of the strikes between launches. Now the Russians have launched an attack using more than a hundred air strike weapons after a four-month interval. It seems the Russians are in no hurry.
They may act lazily, but they are methodical and precise. They strike like a battering ram against the same points of resistance over and over again, knowing that the defenders will eventually tire. As was the case in Bakhmut and Avdiyivka. The losses they suffer are still acceptable to the Kremlin. The society, trained by years of propaganda, shows no desire to oppose and humbly endures the death of loved ones. After all, they believe that they are defending their homeland against a fascist attack, as their grandfathers did years ago. It will be difficult for Ukrainians to defeat such a fanatical society.
