Under these conditions, public opinion has begun to adopt an increasingly cold attitude towards the leader of Poland 2050. The July CBOS polls on politicians’ confidence show that Hołownia’s ratings have fallen to their lowest level since November 2023 – that is, since he became marshal. Since March, distrust towards Hołownia has increased by 3 percent, and trust has fallen by 2.
Hołownia is harming itself
Of course, trust ratings do not necessarily translate into political support. However, the CBOS investigation is the least of Hołownia’s problems. Trzecia Droga, who co-leads with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, has lost more than 3 percentage points since the October 15 elections – according to the average of polls from the Politico Poll of Polls portal. support. In the European elections, she achieved a disastrous result of 6.9% of votes – below the electoral threshold for the coalition in the Sejm elections, less than for the Confederation.
Furthermore, Hołownia seems increasingly lost in the current political situation, as if his political hearing and instincts have failed him. Currently, the main issue that Hołownia raises publicly is the reduction of health insurance premiums, especially for entrepreneurs – which was one of the Third Way’s demands in the campaign. The recent words of the leader of Poland 2050, who stated that the health insurance premium “does not cure anyone’s health. It kills Polish companies, small Polish businesses, companies and individual owners”, were widely reported in both mainstream and social media.
By posing the question in this way, Hołownia exposes himself to attacks from two sides – both from more left-wing or pro-state voters, and from those for whom reducing contributions for entrepreneurs is a fundamental demand.
Hołownia’s words that the health insurance premium “kills entrepreneurs” instead of healing them put the Sejm speaker in a position of extreme libertarian populism. This could be politically problematic for Hołownia, especially in the run-up to the presidential elections. For voters for whom every contribution or tax is robbery in broad daylight, Sławomir Mentzen will be more credible. In turn, for voters with more pro-social views, similar language could make Hołownia an unelectable candidate who, instead of building a modern state for 2050, resorts to anti-state populism. Although the inclusion of Ryszard Petru on the lists and the alliance with the PSL, which in recent years has tried to reinvent itself as a party of small entrepreneurs, has shifted Hołownia’s party somewhat towards libertarian populism – which also helped the Third Way take some votes away from the Confederation in 2023 – Poland 2050 nevertheless presented a somewhat different idea for the state at its outset.
The coalition agreement included a promise to increase spending on health services. After years of PiS neglecting investment in public services, a significant proportion of voters in the 15 October coalition – including the Third Way – expected a change in policy in this area. This cannot be done by reducing the funds that enter the system as a result of contributions.
If Hołownia succeeds in negotiating a reduction in the employers’ contribution, it could put him in the role of a politician who, in the interests of a group whose support his party seeks, blocks a promise that is crucial to the coalition’s voters on October 15: improving the quality of health services. Similarly, earlier this year, Hołownia presented himself as a politician who stubbornly blocks changes on the issue of abortion – although in the ruling coalition it was not the Speaker of the Sejm but the PSL’s stance that was the biggest obstacle on this issue.
Why do we need Poland 2050?
On the other hand, if, after Poland 2050’s offensive on this issue, nothing can be achieved regarding the reduction of the contribution, this will be perceived as proof of the complete ineffectiveness of this party in pushing its demands through the coalition. Because although the left can at least be proud of the law introducing the widow’s pension, already signed by the president – one of its main demands from the 2023 campaign – Poland 2050 has not yet achieved anything similar: a major law, visible in the media, completed by the end of the legislative process, which would fulfil the promise made by Hołownia’s party and implement a policy that fully belongs to Poland 2050 and to it alone.
Many voters may find it difficult to identify which specific policies set Poland 2050 apart from the coalition – because the demand for a health insurance premium also belongs to the People’s Party. The PSL itself has a patriotic education project and a whole range of policies that position it as the “conservative anchor of the coalition”, while the left has widow’s pension, women’s rights and social housing for rent. Poland 2050 has, for example, had interesting proposals on climate policy, but these have not yet penetrated the party’s message.
As a result, many voters may wonder what the point of Poland 2050 existing as a separate political environment is? What solutions – which are not included in the programme of either the Civic Coalition, the PSL or the Left – is this party actually fighting for? In 2023, voters were convinced that they needed to support the Third Way co-created by Poland 2050, at least tactically, because the alternative was a third term for PiS. The problem is that Third Road will no longer be able to count on the electorate “borrowed” from other parties for the 2023 local and European elections, and it will not be able to count on them in the presidential elections. The fact that Poland 2050 failed to find an idea for itself in the first season of the October 15 coalition government, as a party that was part of the governing camp, is undoubtedly Hołownia’s biggest failure as the leader of this formation.
Will Poland 2050 end in 2025?
Hołownia does not have much time to find a new political idea for herself and her environment. Because the pre-campaign for the 2025 presidential elections will start soon, which could be the beginning of the end for Poland 2050 and its leader.
If Hołownia does not participate in them and immediately supports the Civic Coalition candidate, public opinion will interpret this as a withdrawal from the fight and proof that Poland 2050 and its leader no longer count as a serious and independent political force. If it starts and achieves a very weak result, the public opinion verdict will be similar: Hołownia is finished. In this situation, Poland 2025 will end in 2025.
And if the leader of Poland 2050 does not change something in the way the party operates within the governing coalition, a very poor result is very likely. Especially if KO and PiS manage to turn the elections into a plebiscite in the first round: whether we want PiS back or not.
