According to the latest study by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research (PIK), it will no longer be possible to keep global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The most optimistic scenario currently assumes an increase of no more than 1.6°C, and the chances of this happening are 50 percent, provided that a number of systemic constraints can be overcome.
Experts: Current climate target no longer achievable
Scientists have confirmed that the dynamic development of “green” technologies in recent years offers hope for effective action in combating the climate crisis, but one obstacle is the limited implementation of climate policy in some countries. Some of them lack adequate tools to effectively implement policies, such as pricing carbon dioxide emissions. This, in turn, severely limits their ability to decarbonise their economies efficiently and quickly. Such constraints are particularly common in developing countries that lack adequate financial resources.
According to the study authors, several of these obstacles could reduce the likelihood of keeping global temperature rise below 1.6 degrees Celsius. The scientists therefore call for international support for regions that need to increase their capacity to deploy clean technologies. In the case of the European Union, the key challenge is to accelerate the green transformation and increase ambition in the transport, construction and industrial sectors.
It is worth remembering that from July 2023 to June 2024, the global average surface temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius, and June was considered the hottest in history and the thirteenth consecutive month in which the temperature record was broken.
