In Burma, the flooding and destruction caused by tropical storm Yagi since September 13 has been a double blow for the population in many areas already displaced or affected by conflict between the military junta and the armed resistance, and the country’s economy is on the brink of collapse.
The regime officially estimated the death toll at 226 dead and 77 missing on September 18, while the underground government of the resistance, called the National Unity Government (NUG), estimated the number of dead and missing at at least 1,000. It accuses the junta of mismanaging water reserves and keeping the public poorly informed.
General Min Aung Hlaing, who overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, admitted he was surprised by the extent of the destruction. Coupist soldier appeared on the front page of the daily newspaper Myanmar’s Global New LightThe junta’s official spokesman, speaking at the victims’ bedside on Thursday, September 19, in a rural area around the regime’s heavily guarded capital of Naypyidaw, vowed to: “Do everything possible to return to normal”.
Min Aung Hlaing also called on his administration to seek international aid, a change in the junta’s stance after it had repeatedly rejected all forms of external support in the past. In May 2023, Naypyidaw even blocked international organizations from accessing areas affected by Cyclone Mocha in Rakhine State.
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This “opening” is, above all, a sign of weakness: the Burmese army is overwhelmed by armed resistance attacks from the country’s periphery and has introduced compulsory military service of up to 35 years, further destabilizing the “economy.” Even in central Burma, famines are affecting an increasing number of essential crops.
Observers fear the aim is to rally international aid to affected areas under military control, particularly Naypyidaw, but also parts of Sagaing region, around Mandalay and the affected areas of southern Shan State, a loyalist stronghold where floods have caused extensive damage.
But for almost two years, the resistance has been trying in vain to get international organizations to deal with the NUG and to transfer aid through border countries to areas directly controlled by ethnic armed groups fighting the junta. The equation is complicated: Any UN agency that did so would lose its official authority to operate in Burma. And a border country like Thailand, for example, cannot risk upsetting the Burmese regime by receiving international aid on behalf of the resistance.
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