It’s been a rollercoaster of a month when it comes to lunch meat.
In late July, just as parents were starting to decide what to pack for school lunches, Boar’s Head recalled more than 7 million pounds of ham, salami and other products after its liver sausage was linked to a deadly listeria outbreak. That’s enough sausages to fill 161 semi-trailers.
Luncheon meat recently became a political prop when it appeared on a grocery table set alongside Donald Trump as he gave a speech bemoaning the high cost of food. According to his campaign, the price of luncheon meat had risen 23.2 percent since Kamala Harris became vice president. (Other national sales data have kept the growth at around 25 percent.)
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As if on cue, sales of deli meat fell nearly 8 percent during the week of the recall, which is “in a big sense very mild,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, director of food research firm 210 Analytics. Since the peak of the pandemic season, lunch meat sales have been soft overall. In the year ending in June, they fell by 2.4%.
But never bet against luncheon meat. The staple, which made its American debut in German-Jewish delis in the 1850s, is now a $16 billion-a-year company that seems to be weathering challenges and changes—whether it’s warnings about links to cancer and heart disease or sudden fads like the pastry table. – with equal aplomb.
After a few years of ups and downs related to the pandemic and prices, the cold cuts market is settling back into moderate growth, according to Mintel’s 2023 bacon and lunch meat report. “Lunch meat has been an incredibly stable segment,” said Jonna Parker, fresh food analyst at Circana. “There is leverage.”
Lunch meat sales have withstood food inflation, in large part because there are so many options. Shoppers can even switch to delicate, expensive slices of mortadella when they’re feeling flush or want to entertain, and a cheaper bag of bologna when they’re not.
In a world where convenience, choice and customization are the watchwords of the food industry, deli meat offers every householder a way to find something in the fridge for fast food.
The recent Boar’s Head recall focused on contamination from listeria bacteria, which can cause serious infections, especially in pregnant women, those over 65 or those with weakened immune systems. Other people may feel it like the flu, with fever, vomiting, and diarrhea. Listeria can also grow when the infected product is packaged and refrigerated, and it can linger on slicers and other surfaces where food is prepared.
As of Aug. 8, three deaths and 43 hospitalizations in 13 states had been linked to a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head products, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported. (The Boar’s Head media office did not respond to emails seeking comment.)
Roerink and others who study the market said several factors outside of the recall may have caused the recent decline in sales. They expect the numbers to return to normal within a month. They said the traditional back-to-school approach helps, but so does the shopping public, which has more faith in the recall process than before, or at least is more willing to move past the stigma.
“This will have a very temporary impact on sales,” said Roerink, who has worked in retail food research for more than 20 years. “Americans have a lot of confidence in the safety of the food they buy.”
One of them is Aidan Krainock, a private school fundraiser and art appraiser in Portland, Oregon. He’s a fan of Boar’s Head, especially its beef bologna, which he asks the deli to slice thin. He eats it over Patong with mayo and mustard.
When Krainock heard about the recall, he stopped visiting the supermarket’s deli section. But after a little research, he’s ready to go back. “If they hadn’t isolated the problems, or if Oregon was one of the hottest states, I would be scared to go back,” he said.
Still, he eats cold cuts in moderation. His mother is recovering from colon cancer; studies have shown that increased consumption of processed meat can increase a person’s risk of developing such cancers.
“Despite growing public health concern over processed meat consumption, there has been no change in the amount of processed meat consumed by US adults over the past 18 years,” state the researchers, who published their findings in 2019 in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition. and dietetics.
Like many grocery staples, lunch meat got a big boost in the COVID era. For example, deli ham grew by 25% in 2020.
That popularity remained. Shoppers switched from buying fresh sliced meat to packaged deli meats and take-and-go combos that mixed meat and cheese. Today, 52 percent of deli meat sales come from the grab-and-go box, up from 37 percent in 2019, said Chris DuBois, who oversees Circana’s meat, seafood and deli research.
“This is a slow moving earthquake,” he said.
Millennials, who tend to value convenience, are less likely than their older counterparts to take the time to ask a deli counter worker to slice a meat, DuBois said. Research also shows that they are big nibblers and interested in adding protein to their diet, which can all help secure the future of the cold cut.
“Older generations might think of it as purely a sandwich occasion, but yes, cold cuts can be a snack or a whole dinner,” Roerink said. “The younger generation, who are very protein-forward, can eat a couple of slices of turkey for an afternoon snack.”
Attracting them includes offering innovative flavors and emphasizing animal welfare and better handling practices. This has led to products such as antibiotic-free citrus-ginger turkey breast, national brands repackaged to emphasize sustainability, and vegan salami.
But they likely won’t change the lunch meat landscape, DuBois said. The classic lasts.
“Turkey and pot roast and ham — that’s the biggest part of your business,” said Stew Leonard Jr., president of the small, colorful Northeast grocery chain his father founded in 1969. “It’s your Ford, your GM, your Chrysler.”
The deli counter has long been one of Stew Leonard’s most reliable departments, even though it stopped selling Boar’s Head products due to a business dispute in 2022. And it probably will, Leonard said. “People always eat cold cuts.”
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