Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions fell slightly last year, even as the economy and population grew, suggesting climate policies have had their intended impact, according to a new analysis.
In its annual emissions report published this morning, the Canadian Climate Institute said the country’s emissions would fall 0.8 per cent by 2023, to a total of 702 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Dave Sawyer, chief environmental economist at the policy research organization, said the findings suggest there has been “modest progress” in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and that “we’re seeing policies starting to work.”
The most notable reductions have been in the electricity sector — which is shifting from emissions-intensive coal to other fuels, such as natural gas — and the buildings sector.
However, those gains were offset by increased emissions from oil and gas and increased air travel after the pandemic, the analysis said.
Oil and gas continued its long-term trend of steadily increasing emissions — up one per cent or 2.2 megatonnes from 2022 — and now accounts for 31 per cent of Canada’s national total.
“We have a kind of yin-yang effect where we’re trying to drive emissions down, but oil and gas keeps pulling us up,” Sawyer said in an interview.
Sawyer said the progress in the electricity sector has been remarkable. Emissions from the sector have continued to decline and are now 62 percent lower than in 2005.
“You’re seeing a fuel shift from coal to gas,” he said, something driven by policies at the federal, provincial and territorial levels.
“Now, battery storage is really taking off, which is basically allowing us to put more … wind and solar into the grid.”
In buildings, emissions reductions have come from improvements such as heat pumps, along with an unusually warm winter. And federal and provincial grants for improvements have seen significant increases.
“People naturally renovate their homes and new buildings are much more efficient than 50-year-old buildings,” he said.
Sawyer said the report did not provide insight into whether a carbon tax, a source ongoing debate in Canadian politicshas proven to be an effective driver in reducing emissions.
A early analysis this year by the Canadian Climate Institute found that carbon pricing — both consumer and industrial versions — is projected to reduce emissions by 50 per cent by 2030, but noted that industrial carbon pricing is the main reason for this.
‘Solution suite’
Overall, the contraction in some sectors of the Canadian economy has been offset by a surge in the oil sector, said Janetta McKenzie, an oil and gas specialist at the Calgary-based Pembina Institute.
Oil and gas industry production hit highest record in 2023and forecasters have predicted that the trend is likely to continue.
McKenzie said there are “a range of solutions available” for the oil and gas industry — such as further reducing methane emissions and targeted use of carbon capture and storage technology. But he said the increases companies have made in emissions intensity have been offset by increases in production.
“This continues to be a tough nut to crack,” he said in an interview.
He suggests that climate policy can be effective “when it takes advantage of opportunities … to work on both the emissions reduction side, but also on the economic policy side.”
When asked about efforts to reduce emissions on Wednesday, ahead of the report’s release, Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault said more steps were underway, including draft regulations to oil and gas emission limitsalong with rules for clean electricity regulation.
