NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will talk for the first — and perhaps last — time Tuesday night as the presidential candidates battle to sway voters on the biggest stage in American politics.
The meeting comes just 75 days after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance triggered a political earthquake that ultimately forced him out of the race. Few expect such a sweeping result this time, but Trump will have the task of ending Harris’ “honeymoon,” as polls show the Democratic vice president is now tied with — or slightly ahead of — the former Republican president in some swing states.
Harris, a former courtroom prosecutor, enters the evening with relatively high expectations against a Republican opponent with 34 felony convictions and a penchant for making false statements. The question is whether Harris, who didn’t particularly stand out in the primary debates of his 2020 presidential campaign, can indict Trump’s glaring responsibilities in a face-to-face meeting on live television with the world watching.
The 90-minute meeting begins at 9 p.m. ET Tuesday at the National Constitutional Center in Philadelphia. It will be moderated by ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis. According to the rules negotiated by both campaigns, there is no live audience.
Here’s what we’re watching on the historic night:
Can Harris do what Biden couldn’t?
Biden set an incredibly low bar for Harris in the June 27 debate. The president struggled to offer coherent reasoning or even finish his sentences. But the anti-Trump coalition was most disappointed by his inability to capitalize on Trump’s obvious policy liabilities — whether on abortion, the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, his character or his legal troubles.
Harris is expected to do much better. But even in such fertile terrain, scoring points against Trump in the debate stage is easier said than done. Trump may be the most experienced debater in modern presidential history. As a former reality TV star, he knows how to manage a television broadcast. And he clearly likes to fight.
Harris recently suggested he may be in for a political fight. “Donald,” he told a cheering crowd last month in Atlanta, “if you have something to say, say it to my face.”
Can he support loud talk? The world is coming to light.
Can Trump focus?
Trump is not known for his discipline or preparation. His conversational performances, like his leadership style, typically feed far more on instinct than thoughtful analysis.
That’s why few expect Trump to offer a clear and concise line of attack against Harris on Tuesday night. Still, he’ll have to do better than the sink approach he’s been testing on the campaign trail for much of the past month.
Trump has questioned Harris’ race. He falsely called him a communist. He questioned her strength. He has been barking at him as a San Francisco liberal. And he reminded voters that he has served in the Biden White House for nearly four years and would presumably continue the president’s policies for another four years if he wins.
It’s the Biden connection that many Republicans inside and outside the Trump campaign see as most effective. They want him to bring to mind Ronald Reagan’s 1980 debate-stage jab — “Got a better one?” – early and often.
The question is whether Trump can deliver a message in a way that isn’t immediately overshadowed by a much more controversial statement. Recent history offers reasons to be skeptical.
Body language matters
Of course, there are obvious gender dynamics on stage on Tuesday night.
Fair or not, body language and tone are seen differently in a conversation between a man and a woman. Just ask Hillary Clinton. She said Trump made her “skin crawl” standing behind her when she spoke in a town hall-style debate in 2016.
The candidates are expected to remain on their podiums on Tuesday night. But Republicans hope Trump will avoid other provocations, such as pointing, yelling or otherwise approaching Harris in a way that might be off-putting to suburban women or other swing voters.
Harris, too, faces unique racial and gender challenges as voters consider whether to make her the nation’s first female president. Some voters still say they’re not happy with the idea. If he gets angry, he might play into racist tropes about black women.
Even if the gender dynamic becomes blurred, don’t underestimate the importance of their age difference either.
Harris is almost two decades younger than the 78-year-old Trump. Age was seen as a political advantage for Trump when he faced 81-year-old Biden, but now the opposite is true against 59-year-old Harris. If he wins, Trump will become the oldest US president ever elected.
The format will also be slightly different according to the rules agreed by the candidates this week.
There is no live audience, no opening speeches or props. Candidates’ microphones are muted while their opponent is on the clock, which has caused controversy in recent days.
Trump reluctantly agreed to a mute when he faced Biden in June, but after that conversation, his team said it was a net positive if voters didn’t hear about the former Republican president when his opponent spoke. Harris’ team sought to return to normal form without mute buttons.
Abortion vs immigration
Politics sometimes takes a back seat to personality in presidential elections, but there are dramatic differences between the candidates on key issues that are on the minds of millions of voters.
Republicans hope that Trump will make immigration a central topic of discussion.
The GOP has effectively condemned the Biden administration’s handling of illegal immigration at the US-Mexico border for much of the past four years. Once a mostly Republican base, illegal immigration — and related concerns about drugs, crime and national security — is now a top issue for voters across the political spectrum.
Harris eagerly reminds voters that Trump helped kill a bipartisan immigration bill that would have helped solve the problem. But overall, Harris is likely to be on the defensive when the issue comes up.
Democrats, on the other hand, want to focus on abortion.
Trump, of course, appointed three Supreme Court justices who later overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that protected a woman’s right to choose an abortion. Trump has repeatedly said he was proud of Roe’s defeat. But aware that such a view is not popular with many women, she has tried to soften her stance on the divisive issue.
Harris doesn’t make it easy. Obviously, as a woman, she is in her position a much more effective messenger on this issue than Biden was. And Trump can’t afford to lose many more women voters.
Watch out for wild card Trump
If you ask Trump’s former debate opponents what to expect Tuesday night — and we did — many will say the same thing: Watch out for something he says or does that Harris can’t possibly prepare for.
Trump is the ultimate wild card who has achieved enormous political success by ignoring the traditional rules of politics. He says or does what he thinks is best at the moment. And Harris, who has devoted several days to preparing for the debate, can’t plan everything.
At this point, it’s hard to imagine Trump surprising anyone with new material. He has praised dictators, talked about genital size, proposed suspending the US Constitution and said Harris only recently “turned black.”
Trump’s own team does not know what he will do or say on any given day. It’s incredibly risky for Trump. But it also puts enormous pressure on Harris.
