According to one survey, the race for first place is heating up ahead of the Brandenburg state elections. According to the ZDF political survey Extra, the AfD is on 28 percent, just ahead of the SPD (27 percent). The gap has narrowed compared to a survey conducted by the Election Research Council on September 13. At that time, the gap between the two parties was still just 3 percentage points.
The Brandenburg Constitutional Protection Agency classifies the AfD national association as right-wing extremist. A new state parliament is due to be elected in Brandenburg on Sunday. For the representative ZDF survey, the electoral research group conducted a survey of 1,118 eligible voters in Brandenburg on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
The new survey puts the CDU at 14 percent. Some smaller parties have to worry about returning to the state parliament. The Greens are at 4.5 percent, the Left at 4 percent and the BVB/Free Voter at 3.5 percent. They are therefore below the 5 percent hurdle. However, according to the provisions, even if they do not reach the 5 percent threshold, they can still enter parliament with at least one direct mandate.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Coalition (BSW), which is running for the first time in the Brandenburg state elections, is on 13%. The other parties combined have 6%, with no party reaching the minimum of 3%. However, 27% of those surveyed are currently unsure of who they would like to vote for or if they would like to vote for.
A government leader with good poll numbers
Prime Minister Dietmar Wojdke (SPD) currently governs with a coalition of the SPD, CDU and the Greens. According to new survey figures, this would not be enough for a government of the SPD and CDU, and BSW could act as a coalition partner. According to the information, this would be enough for a coalition of the AfD and SPD or for an AfD and CDU government. However, both are considered impossible, as the SPD and CDU do not want to cooperate with the AfD. “If one of the smaller parties enters the state parliament with a direct mandate, other coalition options could emerge,” ZDF said of the survey.
If the AfD comes first in the state elections, Chancellor Woidke will want to resign. Asked who they would like to vote for as Chancellor, Woidke received 59 percent in a new ZDF poll, far ahead of AfD top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, who received 16 percent. In the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, the AfD won more than 30 percent of the vote. It is the strongest force in Thuringia. Both Saxony and Thuringia have complicated government formation processes.
Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainty. Above all, the weakening of party ties and the increasingly short-term nature of voting decisions make it increasingly difficult for pollsters to weight the data collected. Polls, in principle, only reflect opinions at the time of the poll and do not predict election results.
The AfD was ahead in previous surveys in Brandenburg, but the gap with the SPD varied. The ARD German Trends of September 12 had the SPD right behind the AfD on 26% to 27%. A personnel survey of September 17 had the SPD on 25% to the AfD on 28%.
