Overwhelming majorities of black likely voters in battleground states said they would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November — even though she needs to close a deal with some skeptical undecideds to match President Joe Biden’s 2020 margins among black voters.
Data from a new Howard University Initiative public opinion poll of 963 likely black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the seven battleground states for the election — show 82 percent of respondents saying they would vote. Vote for Harris, while 12% say they will vote for former President Donald Trump. Another 5 percent are undecided, and 1 percent plan to choose another candidate.
The results are consistent with 2020 exit polls from the same battleground states, which showed 89% of black voters supporting Biden and 9% for Trump, as well as other post-election surveys examining the 2020 vote.
While black swing-state voters are largely behind Harris, there are some important differences among black voters.
“We have 100 percent black voters in the poll, and that gives us opportunities to tap into the diversity of thought in the black community,” said Dana Williams, Dean of the Graduate School, co-director of the Initiative on Public Opinion. School at Howard University.
“It’s important for the range of black voices to be heard and recognized,” Williams added. “I think part of the mainstream media’s responsibility is to reflect the population, and as one of the largest constituencies, we need to spend a lot more time thinking about what’s on their minds so that legislative agendas, presidential agendas, messaging on all these fronts don’t miss a significant number of voters.”
Overall, black women and a corresponding 81 percent of black men said they would vote for Harris over Trump. Older voters support Harris more strongly, while younger voters are more divided.
While 89% of black battleground voters 50 and older said they would vote for Harris and only 8% planned to vote for Trump, those 18 to 49 were split differently: 75% for Harris and 16% for Trump. .
The age change was particularly strong among black men.
Among respondents, men under 50 favor Harris by 50 points (72% to 21%), while Harris’ advantage among men over 50 is 78 points (88% to 10%). Among young women, Harris’s margin is 65 points (78% to 13%), but among older women it is 84 points (89% to 6%).
(Rounding takes into account the differences between reported margins and reported vote shares.)
Meanwhile, black swing-state voters with a college degree support Harris over Trump by 73 points, while black voters without a college degree support Harris over Trump by 68 points.
According to the poll, younger and less educated voters are more likely to support Trump.
Just over a quarter (26%) of men under 50 without a college degree said they would vote for Trump, while 67% said they would vote for Harris.
In the poll, voters said they were motivated to vote for Harris based on his positions, values and character, while they ranked Trump’s position, values and character as the biggest factors making black voters less likely to vote for him.
In the survey, black voters cited Harris’ character (79%), his positions and agenda on abortion and reproductive health care (79%), and his values (78%) as factors that would make them more likely to vote for him. Harris’ positions and agenda on immigration (19%) and the Gaza conflict (17%), as well as his work as a prosecutor (15%) were among the top reasons respondents were likely to vote for him.
As for Trump, voters said they were influenced by his position and agenda on the economy (18%), his position and agenda on immigration (17%), his record on business (16%) and his record as president (16%). they are more likely to vote for him. The most common reasons given by voters for not wanting to support Trump were his character (81%), his position and agenda on abortion and reproductive health care (80%), and his values (80%).
Black voters most closely associated Harris with abortion rights and reproductive health care (28%) and economic policy (26%). Views of Trump were more divided, with 14 percent saying they most closely associate him with border control and immigration policy.
The poll found that 84% of black voters who responded said they were worried about an increase in hatred or cruelty against African-Americans if Trump wins. Forty-five percent said that if Harris becomes the second black president, they share the same concern about an increase in hatred or cruelty toward African-Americans.
“What the media tells us is important to voters, which drives the way candidates respond to what they learn,” Williams said. “And if they don’t learn what black voters think, they’ll continue to be guided” by reporting and polling that doesn’t delve as deeply into black opinion.
The Howard Initiative on Public Opinion designed and administered a multimodal survey of 963 likely voters who self-identified as African American or black and reported being registered to vote in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. The survey was conducted from 4 to 11 September with text-to-web online surveys and phone interviews (landline and mobile phone). The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
