There is no iPhone 16 “supercycle,” according to famed Apple rumormonger Ming-Chi Kuo. The analyst shared his data, gleaned from a supply chain survey and pre-order results from official Apple websites.
And the numbers paint a grim picture for Apple. iPhone 16 series pre-orders are expected to be around 37 million units in the first weekend, down 12.7% year-over-year compared to iPhone 15 family first weekend sales. And that’s regardless of the fact that iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus first weekend sales were up year-over-year.
Demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max is lower than expected, even though Apple was very optimistic about the Pro Max’s prospects and shipment growth even before pre-sales began (compared to the Pro Max 15).
Kuo speculates that the disappointing results for the Pro models are due to the fact that the Apple Intelligence features will not be coming with them this Friday, September 20, and will instead be delivered in batches starting in October and continuing into next year. It is also said that there is intense competition in the Chinese market, which is affecting iPhone demand in the country.
Still, Kuo doesn’t anticipate any production cuts, at least not yet, saying that Pro model sales will improve once Apple Intelligence comes out. The holiday shopping season could also help.
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