If there was any doubt that Vice President Kamala Harris has changed this year’s presidential election, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls on Saturday morning put it to rest.
In the first Times/Siena College swing state election since participating, Harris leads the former president Donald Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters. That’s a big change from previous Times/Siena polls that found Trump leading Harris and President Joe Biden averaging 1 or 2 points each in the same three states.
Sometimes it can be difficult to explain why queries change from week to week or month to month. In today’s polarized politics, it can even be difficult to explain why voters change in the first place. In this case, it’s easy: Harris’ entry into the race has changed the fundamentals of this election.
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Until now, the basic dynamics of the race were driven by Biden’s unpopularity. It prevented Democrats from pursuing their usual strategy against Trump and his MAGA allies: Make the election a referendum on Trump by running a generally acceptable candidate. Millions of voters were left with an agonizing choice between two candidates they didn’t like.
With Harris riding extraordinary speed at the top of the ticket, at least for now, the usual political dynamics of the Trump era have returned. In the poll, at least 49 percent of likely voters in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin said they have a favorable view of him. Neither Harris nor Biden reached the level in any previous Times/Siena poll this season.
Views on Trump have not weakened. In fact, his approval rating rose slightly, to 46 percent in all three states — just enough to represent his highest mark in the history of the Times/Siena poll. That may have been enough for a clear lead against Biden, whose ratings had fallen into the 30s in early July. But for now, it won’t be enough against the up-and-coming Harris.
One way to think about his position is that he has become something of a “mainstream” Democrat. This may sound like an insult, but it really isn’t. In fact, nothing is more desirable. A no-nominee general candidate—whether Democrat or Republican—almost always does better in the polls than a nominate candidate, inevitably weighed down by all the imperfections voters learn about during the campaign.
When we polled these three states in October, the no-name Democrat led Trump by about 10 points, even as Trump led Biden and Harris by about 1 point each. The flip side of a different, generally acceptable Democrat was, of course, purely hypothetical. There was no guarantee that any real-world Democrat could avoid alienating many voters who would want to vote for someone other than Trump. And there was really no reason to believe that Harris would be such a Democrat, given that he was viewed negatively by a majority of voters and brought plenty of political baggage from his stint as vice president and his failed 2020 presidential campaign.
But these days, Harris is polling a lot more like that generic, no-name Democratic presidential candidate. Question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have much reservations about him. Most say he is honest and intelligent; that he brings the right kind of change and has the temperament to be president; and that he has a clear vision for the country. A majority also don’t think he’s too far to the left: just 44% of likely voters say he’s too liberal or progressive, compared to 44% who said he’s not too far in either direction and 6% who said he’s not progressive. enough. The poll didn’t have to ask if voters thought he was too old to be a working president.
Whether this will last is an entirely different question. Harris may vote like a typical Democrat, but he now faces much more scrutiny and attack. Until now, he has benefited from a few weeks of very favorable media coverage, big endorsements and an outpouring of goodwill from voters who had been desperate for an alternative to two loathsome older candidates. But that period won’t last forever, and the question is whether he’ll maintain that kind of support when the going gets tough.
The survey gives no indication in either direction. But the huge shift in opinion about Harris in just the last few weeks is a reminder that the public doesn’t necessarily have a firm view of him. If Trump’s lead over Harris in previous polls was not necessarily based on solid views of the vice president, it cannot be assumed that his lead over Trump would stand on solid ground today.
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