He steers the conversation toward specific data and examples, while Marta Golbik, sitting on the other side, spouts generalities. After the discussion, they leave the studio together and take a taxi back to the Sejm.
If we wait for the president’s next strategy, we may not wait. We won’t win the elections with old tricks – PiS politician
Scene two
TVP Studio, the program “Bez retuszu” hosted by Marek Czyż. One of the guests is Marcin Horała, a former deputy minister in the PiS government and former head of the Central Communications Port project. The discussion concerns the Justice Fund, the use of public funds and the imbalance in last year’s Sejm and Senate races. Horała is standing alone against everyone, that is, representatives of the KO, the Left and the Confederation. And although he was known for his impertinence in confrontations with the other side of the political fence, he also tones down his tone, uses arguments and even admits that his interlocutors are right. He also had the public against him, but he never adopted the tone typical of PiS politicians. He did not shout at anyone, did not insult anyone and never said that Donald Tusk was a German agent.
Scene three
Telewizja Republika is therefore the most conducive environment for extreme performances by United Right politicians. There is also a heavyweight fighter in the studio – Janusz Kowalski. In such circumstances, a standard message is needed. And this is a surprise, because suddenly it turns out that it is possible to reach an agreement with the ruling coalition.
– President Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the United Right camp, speaks with one voice with Marshal Szymon Hołownia – says the deputy of the PiS club, formerly Sovereign Poland. – They managed to speak with one voice about the political divisions in the fight against pedophilia. Law and Justice, led by Jarosław Kaczyński and Mariusz Błaszczak as president of the club, speaks with one voice with the left on the issue of widows’ pensions, which I support. PiS spoke with one voice on an issue that was very important to me, because I am the son of a Volhynian, on the resolution regarding the Volhynian massacre, with the Polish People’s Party. These are things we work for. We must be open to different ideas and different environments, we must build positive alliances on issues that are important for Poland, he assures.
The language of love, tolerance and understanding appears in the mouth of one of the most staunch defenders of the United Right.
Saw the edges
Why this sudden change in politicians with such different temperaments and political ambitions? Law and Justice has asked for a deep and lasting reflection – is this a pre-election farce that has been known for years?
“This is a long march,” says Dr. Robert Sobiech, a sociologist at the Collegium Civitas. “PiS realizes that the current electorate will not be enough to get 50 percent of the votes in the presidential election. It needs to soften its history, smooth out the rough edges a bit and present itself as a responsible party with a program and young people.”
Is this visible change a planned strategy by the president or just the will of politicians who are not satisfied with the lean years in the opposition?
– If you are asking whether there was such an order, no, there was not – one of the PiS politicians tells me. – Quite simply, many MPs have come to the conclusion that we need to find a different language, a different formula for establishing dialogue, and this is not just about dialogue with voters, but above all with political opponents.
The main problem for Law and Justice after the October 15 elections was the complete lack of coalition capabilities. True, then Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki pretended for almost a month that he was conducting some talks with political Yetis that no one saw, but it was clear from the very beginning that no one would want any coalition with PiS.
That is why some in PiS are trying on their own to dig at least a little into the trenches surrounding the party.
Wrought iron
“I am sure that within two years it will be possible to talk about new coalitions in this Sejm,” a politician from the PiS club predicts with unshakable hope. “We just need to show the Konfederacja and the PSL that we have common projects and can reach an agreement. Of course, this will not happen overnight,” he says, “but in a situation where the PSL is being pushed out of the coalition by the left, we need to strike while the iron is hot.”
In the case of the Confederation, it looks a bit different, because PiS will try to break it apart. Sławomir Mentzen is an acceptable partner for Law and Justice, but Krzysztof Bosak and his National Movement are a threat from the right flank that must be eliminated sooner or later. This is a short-term strategy for the upcoming elections, but there is also a long-term plan that has begun to emerge in the minds of the younger generation of PiS politicians.
– (EN) Voters, especially those in western Poland, do not want fights, they want politics, not fights. We have to find new voters there, we have to seek support there, because in the east we have what is ours – explains the PiS politician. – We have to show that we are European conservatives.
On the trail of Bosak
This tactic can be compared with what Krzysztof Bosak did for the National Movement in recent years. Together with Robert Winnicki, in subsequent election campaigns they “disenchanted” the nationalists until they became eligible. From hooligans, brawlers and troublemakers who set fire to Empik in Warsaw, they turned into politicians. It was hard work for the leaders. They did not change their views, but they certainly changed their image and introduced an extremist party into the mainstream of politics.
Dressed in a handsome suit, Bosak attended meetings with voters in subsequent campaigns, showing that his worldview consisted not of fascist slogans about white Europe, but of patriotic slogans about a sovereign Poland; not of a total ban on abortion, but only of the protection of mothers and children; these were not anti-Ukrainian chants, but pro-Polish slogans. Nationalists understood that in politics, narrative is everything. Disconnecting ourselves from people like Robert Bąkiewicz and stories like setting fire to the balcony during the Independence March meant that the National Movement is not only in the Sejm, but also in the European Parliament for the second term in a row. A few more years and new voters will not understand why the nationalists are being accused of fascism.
– The politicians of the Confederation have understood the mood of a certain social group well – very young people who still believe that they do not need the state, and based on this they build their story about an unnecessary state. Very effectively – Dr. Sobiech analyses. – The Confederation has been the third party in the polls for a few months now. For now, these results are not surprising, as they reach several percentages of support, but at the same time, support for the party that should be the third force, i.e. the Third Way, is falling, and this is in fact the success of these young politicians who have accurately deciphered the needs and expectations of a relatively narrow group of voters. And so they have become a permanent part of the Polish political scene.
Here we go again?
PiS has already used a similar method twice. Sometimes ineffectively, sometimes even ineffectively. In the 2011 elections, one of the first decisions of the electoral team was to ban MPs like Marek Suski from speaking or even singing “Give Peace a Chance (PiS)” in 1970s-style attire. It failed because only four years had passed since the previous PiS mandate. But already in 2015, the merry team of Beata Szydło and Jarosław Kaczyński, hiding behind the scenes, did their job and convinced new voters. It was enough to show Jarosław Gowin instead of Antoni Macierewicz and that was it. And then Antoni jumped out of the hat anyway. That is why some people do not believe that the change shown by PiS MPs can be fundamental.
– Of course, there is a plan to rejuvenate PiS, to replace its wardrobe with a more fashionable, perhaps less flashy one, but the essence remains – says Dr. Anna Siewierska, a political scientist at the University of Rzeszów. – PiS is still an anti-democratic, anti-immigration and anti-equality party. Before the presidential elections, it will have to reach a wider electorate, but the next day it will return to its old ways. When the next parliamentary campaign begins, PiS will follow the proven national-Catholic and anti-Western narrative. The politicians of this party know that the Confederation is stealing a radical electorate from them, and the liberals will not fall for the “civilized version of PiS” again.
But the thing is, no one changes their mind, only the narrative. Sometimes you have to wait a long time and sometimes it’s simply impossible.
– Let’s look back at what happened in October. Let’s look at this mass revolt, this 75% turnout – the success of the current ruling coalition was that voters went to vote for many different reasons – explains Dr Robert Sobiech. – So, very different expectations are placed on the October 15 coalition, which is often unable to deliver or even present its priority stories on Poland. So if PiS is able to present its softer story and idea for Poland, and at the same time encounter some economic or, God forbid, military threats, the tactic of presenting a responsible PiS could succeed. However, it will be very difficult, because each of these groups that voted for the current coalition went to the elections because PiS, to put it colloquially, angered them on very different issues. And forgetting that anger will be extremely difficult.
Genius will no longer invent gunpowder
The question is whether the PIS as a party can stay the course without Tusk as a German agent, or even – as the president says – a German farmer, without shouting that Poland no longer exists or accusations of torture in prisons. Probably not, because President Kaczyński simply cannot say anything else.
– If we had to wait for the president’s next strategy, perhaps we wouldn’t wait – our PiS interlocutor shrugs. – Now that the presidential elections and the strategy for next spring are on the agenda, then the president will be president again and it is unlikely that anything will change. After all, we won’t win new elections with old tricks.
On the one hand, there is the metamorphosis of wolves into sheep. On the other hand, there are factional struggles, as recently in Lesser Poland. Betrayals, shifts in alliances, cancellations and subsequent rebellions. In both cases, however, we are dealing with politicians who are trying to do anything that will bring them electoral success in the future. For Jarosław Kaczyński, there is nothing worse than the fact that people in his party start taking matters into their own hands, without waiting for the president’s finger or the strategies of his press officers. This means that they have stopped believing not only in his idea of a party, but above all in his political genius.
